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The Quad — a security dialogue among the US, India, Japan, and Australia aimed at containing China — conducts Malabar joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean in October 2020. (AFP/Yonhap)

Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has pledged to raise the country’s defense budget to around 2% of its gross domestic product and to fundamentally revise its current defense policy. The pledge can be seen as highlighting Japan’s determination to join forces with the US to counter the growing military threat posed by China in the East China Sea and elsewhere.

In a joint statement following a summit with US President Joe Biden in April, then Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga mentioned “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” for the first time in 52 years and declared that Japan had “resolved to bolster its own national defense capabilities to further strengthen the Alliance and regional security.” The LDP is suggesting that it means to begin taking concrete steps to follow through on those promises.

The policy platform published by the LDP on Tuesday shows that China’s current military activities in the East China Sea, including the Taiwan Strait, are making Japan feel very anxious about its security.

“The security environment is swiftly changing because of China’s drastic expansion of military spending, its rapid intensification of military activity around Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands, its attempts to unilaterally change the status quo through brute strength, its support of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and missiles, and its use of cutting-edge technology to change the method of waging war,” the LDP said. Responding to such issues, the LDP argued, will require a “fundamental revision” of Japan’s security posture.

The Senkaku Islands, called the Diaoyudao Islands in China, are subject to a territorial dispute between China and Japan.

Japan appears to have reached this conclusion after Adm. Philip Davidson, then commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, mentioned the harsh security reality in the East China Sea — which has become the front line of the new Cold War between the US and China — during a hearing at the US Senate Armed Services Committee in March. Davidson said that China could invade Taiwan in the next six years.

That prompted Japanese defense experts to urge the government to take swift action, arguing that Japan must not remain on the sidelines in the event of war in Taiwan.

In May, the LDP’s Policy Research Council argued that Japan “needs a fundamental increase of defense-related expenditure,” a position it shared in a document titled “Proposal for a Fundamental Strengthening of Defense Capabilities in Response to a Rapidly Changing Security Environment.” Meanwhile, a team in the LDP’s Foreign Affairs Division responsible for reviewing Taiwan policy called for “quickly completing legal adjustments” in preparation for a crisis in Taiwan.

The platform that the LDP released on Wednesday would appear to satisfy those requests. First, it includes a major boost of defense spending. According to Japan’s defense white paper for 2021, Japan’s defense budget has only increased by 80% between 1995 and 2021, even as the US’ budget has risen by 170%, South Korea’s has nearly quadrupled, and China’s has ballooned by a factor of 14.

In terms of the ratio of defense spending to GDP, Japan stands at 0.95%, below China (1.25%), South Korea (2.61%), and the US (3.29%). The LDP’s pledge would match Japan’s defense spending to the 2% goal of NATO member states.

Second, the platform could entail a major revision of Japan’s defense policy.

Japan’s national security strategy, which is the basic framework for its foreign policy and national security policy, was established in December 2013, when China’s military moves in the East China Sea were not as overt as they are today. The subordinate concept of Japan’s defense plan outline and its mid-range defense capability adjustment plan, which determines the weapon systems with which Japan’s Self-Defense Forces will be equipped under the defense plan outline, were revised in December 2018.

Now that Japan is moving to increase defense spending — in what amounts to a deviation from the limitations of its “peace constitution” — South Korea’s calculations are growing more complicated. Japan’s actions have the potential to provoke China and North Korea, further aggravating the regional arms race that’s already underway.

Another issue is Japan’s goal of acquiring the ability to attack enemy bases. The LDP’s platform mentions “working on new ways to improve our deterrence, including possessing the ability to block ballistic missiles inside another country’s territory.” That would mean acquiring the ability to strike points of origin if there are indications that North Korea or some other country is about to carry out a missile attack. If Japan were to overreact to a North Korean provocation in the future, a horrific war could break out on the Korean Peninsula regardless of South Korea’s wishes.

By Kim So-youn, Tokyo correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]