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Flags of Taiwan and Lithuania are displayed at Taiwan’s representative office in Vilnius, Lithuania. (Reuters/Yonhap News)

Last year, Slovenia followed the lead of Lithuania in announcing that it planned to establish mutual representative offices with Taiwan at the start of 2022.

The move by Slovenia is unnerving China, which has downgraded its diplomatic relations with Lithuania and even subjected it to trade sanctions. As smaller countries have begun hitting back, the Chinese model of strong-arm diplomacy is being put to the test.

In this sense, it’s necessary to consider remarks made by Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa in an interview with an Indian public broadcaster on Jan. 17. Commenting on the establishment of a representative office in Taiwan, Jansa referred to Taiwan as a “democratic country.”

“If Taiwanese people want to live independently, we are here to support also this position,” Jansa said. Only 14 countries around the world — including Vatican City — have recognized Taiwan as a country and established diplomatic ties with it.

Jansa also criticized the “ridiculous” situation faced by fellow small European country Lithuanian, which has been subjected to all-out pressure tactics from Beijing since setting up a representative office in Taiwan last year.

“Frankly speaking, there is a vast majority of the EU member countries holding some kind of representative offices with Taiwan. Lithuania is not an exception. There are some slight differences in naming the missions, but this is not important,” he said.

“China protested every time some European countries established such offices, but they never went as far as they did in this case,” he added.

“It’s terrifying trying to isolate a small country that also fought for its independence 30 years ago.”

In July of last year, the Lithuanian government approved Taiwan’s request to establish a representative office — a first for a European country. The use of the name “Taiwan” is upsetting to China, which prefers the name “Taipei” based on its “One China” principle.

Lithuania stressed that there had been no change in that principle, but some observers said it had taken the first step in recognizing Taiwan as a separate country from China. Lithuania and its two Baltic neighbors all have a long history of suffering under Russian rule that has left them very sensitive to violations of human rights and activities seen as hegemonic.

China immediately moved to recall its ambassador from Lithuania and expel the Lithuanian ambassador in Beijing. It also suspended freight train operations to Lithuanian that operate as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.

After the Taiwanese representative office officially opened in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius last November, China downgraded the two countries’ relationship from a level requiring an embassy to that of a charge d’affaires, while barring the importation of Lithuanian products. In effect, it used the tiny country of roughly 2.8 million people as an object lesson in a warning to all of Europe.

Even so, it was unable to stop the next domino from falling. The situation has now grown more complex with Slovenia — a country with a population of just over 2 million people — following Lithuania’s lead.

These countries have been able to confront China head-on is because their economic ties with it are not deep. According to data from the World Bank’s World Integrated Trade Solution, Slovenia’s trade with China in 2019 included roughly US$299 million in exports and US$2.33 billion in imports — respectively 0.8% and 6% of total exports and imports.

Lithuania’s exports to China totaled around US$300 million the same year, or 0.9%, while imports amounted to roughly $1 billion, or 2.9% of the country’s total. This means both countries have relatively little to lose from China settling scores.

China’s response to such incidences has also shifted.

In the past, retaliatory measures by Beijing typically targeted specific countries. This was the case when it banned imports of Norwegian salmon in 2010 due to anti-regime activist Liu Xiaobo being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, or when it began waging trade retaliation against Australia around a year ago as relations between the countries soured over matters including an investigation into the origins of COVID-19.

In Lithuania’s case, however, it is attempting to inflict comprehensive sanctions that affect the entire industry supply chain. This is what a columnist at The Wall Street Journal referred to on Jan. 6 as a weapon that even the Cold War-era Soviet Union “never could” use.

Indeed, in a Dec. 24 interview with Germany’s Die Welt, European Union Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis noted, “The Chinese export embargo on Lithuanian products is having an increasing impact on other European countries.”

“Apparently, the Chinese customs authority doesn’t process goods from other EU member states if they contain parts made in Lithuania,” he noted.

He went on to say that various political and diplomatic channels are being used in an effort “to quickly clarify the situation,” but also that a World Trade Organization suit is being prepared in case those efforts do not pan out.

China expressed that it “strongly opposes” Jansa’s remarks, via Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian.

The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, characterized Jansa as “Slovenia’s ‘Trump’” and said he had “play[ed] [the] Taiwan card for ‘political gain.’”

Many are now watching to see what the European Union does next. So far, it has expressed “support” for Lithuania in words without taking concrete action. But with the industry supply chain already being disrupted, it will become harder to avoid taking a direct response if Slovenia likewise becomes a target for Chinese retaliation.

The situations faced by these two small countries of less than 3 million people each are raising some serious questions for an EU that has so far been ignoring the reality of China.

By Jung In-hwan, Beijing correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]