hankyoreh

US President Joe Biden speaks at a meeting on innovation with state leaders on March 9 (local time). (EPA/Yonhap News)

In his first telephone conversation with South Korean President-elect Yoon Suk-yeol on Thursday, US President Joe Biden said he looked forward to coordination on key global issues such as climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and supply chains.

The conversation is focusing greater attention on the incoming administration’s vision for South Korea-US relations, as Biden went beyond a mere congratulatory message to stress the need for active coordination on major international issues.

In telephone and email interviews with the Hankyoreh, Korean Peninsula experts in the US also emphasized the importance of the new administration establishing its course quickly. In particular, they stressed that Washington and Seoul have reached a “mature stage” in their relationship where they are cooperating and coordinating on a range of other issues beyond North Korea’s nuclear program.

Noting Yoon’s emphasis on the “alliance” in connection with the North Korean nuclear program — which remains the biggest issue for South Korea-US relations — the experts predicted that there would not be differences in views between the two sides, but also that solving the problem will not be easy.

Joseph DeTrani, a former US State Department special envoy for negotiations with North Korea, said that with signs showing that North Korea is preparing for nuclear or long-range ballistic missile testing to follow its 11 missile tests so far this year, it was “doubly important” that Seoul and Washington come to an agreement on a single strategy for dealing with Pyongyang.

Predicting that the incoming South Korean administration will cooperate closely with the US on the North Korean nuclear issue, DeTrani suggested that if the North does resume nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile testing, Seoul and Washington should respond by resuming joint military exercises.

Scott Snyder, director of the program on US-Korea policy at the US think tank Council on Foreign Relations, noted that the biggest difference between Yoon and outgoing President Moon Jae-in has been the shift in emphasis toward deterrence through greater military strength.

Snyder predicted that Seoul and Washington would continue beefing up deterrence, while also leaving open the possibility for dialogue if Pyongyang chooses. The biggest problem for South Korea and the US, he added, has been their inability to establish a relationship of dialogue with Korea on denuclearization and to prevent ongoing testing to develop military capabilities.

Some analysts predicted that another big challenge for the incoming South Korean administration will be the US’ mobilization of allies in ratcheting up pressure on China.

Snyder said the biggest challenge for the new South Korean administration would have to do with how it goes about introducing and executing policies on China and strengthening its alignment with the US on the issue.

DeTrani noted that South Korea would be obliged to maintain a good relationship with China, which is a major trading partner. At the same time, he also said it would be important for South Korea and the US to cooperate closely toward their respective interests in national security issues.

It was also predicted that Biden — who will be in Japan to attend a Quad summit as early as late May — may hold a summit with Yoon, who is to be inaugurated on May 10. Some of the experts advised the new administration to move quickly in coming up with an overall blueprint for relations with the US and positions on key issues before May.

Miyeon Oh, director of the Asia program for the Atlantic Council, observed that in the joint statement from their summit in May 2021, South Korea and the US “established an agreement on proceeding from a security-centered alliance toward a comprehensive alliance.”

“At a time when South Korea’s global stature has risen, it’s going to be important for it to establish early on how it plans to proceed with South Korea-US relations,” she suggested.

Oh also noted that the war in Ukraine has “created a very different kind of crisis from before in terms of security, economic, and energy issues.”

“South Korea is going to need to do a good job of establishing its position on a lot of issues, including the North Korean nuclear program, supply chains, and the closeness between China and Russia,” she said.

By Lee Bon-young, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]