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A mortar explodes near a road in Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine on May 23. (AFP/Yonhap News)

The war in Ukraine, now on its 100th day, is approaching its third inflection point. The province of Luhansk in the eastern Donbas region, which Ukraine and pro-Russian rebel forces have been fighting over for the last eight years, is on the verge of falling to the Russian military.

Meanwhile, tensions are rising between the US and Russia due to the former’s plan to provide long-range weapons to Ukraine.

A third turning point in the war seems imminent, the first being the Russian military’s decision to give up capturing Kyiv in early April and the second being Russia’s occupation of Mariupol, a major city in the province of Donetsk, around mid-May.

On Wednesday, Reuters and other major foreign news outlets reported that Russian forces had made their way into central Sievierodonetsk, taking control of over 60% of the major city in Luhansk. If the Russian military captures Sievierodonetsk, the entirety of Luhansk except neighboring Lysychansk will be under Russian control. If Russian forces keep up the momentum and take Lysychansk as well, the capture would signify an immense symbolic victory, as Russia would have taken full possession of the long-disputed area of Luhansk.

Because of this, the Russian military has been devoting itself to attacking these two cities for the past week.

With the confrontation in Luhansk becoming more and more urgent, US President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday his plan to offer additional security assistance to Ukraine, including provisions of the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, which the US has been hesitant to supply to Ukraine.

In his guest essay in the New York Times on Tuesday, Biden revealed that the US was supplying weapons to Ukraine not in order to oust Russian President Vladimir Putin, but so that Ukraine would be in the “strongest possible position” when it negotiates with Russia. Biden also explained that US State Secretary Antony Blinken had said that Ukraine promised not to attack Russian territory with long-range rockets.

Despite this, Russia expressed its strong opposition to the move. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned of the possibility of direct confrontation between the US and Russia, saying the provision of rockets could drag a “third country” into the conflict in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also slammed the US for “deliberately and diligently pouring fuel on the fire.”

Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Ministry made a timely announcement that its military was carrying out large-scale exercises of its strategic nuclear force near Moscow, warning the US and others against direct military interference by making a show of its nuclear capabilities.

A Ukrainian flag flies in the background of the ruins of a building in Borodyanka, a small city outside of Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv, that was hit by Russian fire. (EPA/Yonhap News)

One hundred days have already passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, and the war has progressed in unexpected directions before, but it’s hard to predict where exactly the conflict is headed. This is because Putin has continuously made decisions that didn’t align with predictions from the West.

Early on Feb. 24, Russian forces simultaneously attacked Ukraine from three directions: the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv from the north, Donbas from the east, and Kherson from the south. In Kyiv, the Russian military conducted unprecedentedly fast-paced operations by concentrating its air and armored forces, advancing to a point a mere 30 kilometers from the capital’s northern boundary. Two days later, it even captured Hostomel Airport, a bridgehead into Kyiv, stirring concerns that Ukraine would fall in the blink of an eye.

However, the situation turned around quickly. Russian forces were confronted by strong resistance from Ukraine, its plan to swiftly occupy Kyiv foiled. Conditions were similar in Kharkiv, the second-largest city in Ukraine, as well. Due to strong resistance from Ukrainian forces and logistical problems, the Russian military was pushed further away from Kyiv on March 23, a month into its invasion, from a point 25 to 35 kilometers east of the capital city to a point 55 kilometers away from it.

During its fifth round of peace talks with Ukraine, which was mediated by Turkey and held in Istanbul on March 29, Russia said it would reduce its military operations near Kyiv. Soon, it made relevant preparations and carried through with the promise two days later.

Afterward, the main battleground of the war shifted to Mariupol and Donbas at large. Following the end of its first phase, during which Russia attempted siege warfare against Kyiv, the war had entered its second phase: the battle for Donbas.

After encircling Mariupol, a strategic center adjoining the Sea of Azov, for almost a month, Russian forces gained control over most of Mariupol on March 28. But they only gained full control of Mariupol on May 20, almost two months later, when Ukrainian forces that had been fighting back to the end at the Azovstal steel plant finally surrendered.

When the battle in Donbas seemed to have reached a stalemate, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and others projected in late April that Putin would declare an all-out war against Ukraine around May 9 to mark Victory Day, a day that commemorates the victory against Nazi Germany in World War II. However, Putin defied expectations, only stressing the legitimacy of the war in Ukraine.

The war, which had been at a deadlock in Donbas, started to move forward around mid-May. Russian forces had managed to encircle Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk on May 24. After focusing its military strength in the region, such as by relocating troops that had been stationed in other regions, the Russian military succeeded in penetrating into Sievierodonetsk’s city center within a week.

But some say that Russian forces will only accomplish an “injurious victory” even if they gain full control of the city. In its Tuesday report assessing Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War in the US argued that “Moscow’s concentration on seizing Severodonetsk and Donbas generally continues to create vulnerabilities for Russia in Ukraine’s vital Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue.”

The state of Kherson is the only strategic location the Russian military has managed to occupy west of the Dnipro, a river that divides Ukraine to east and west. Even in Kharkiv, Russian forces have allowed Ukrainian forces to push the battle line forward. In light of this, observers are saying being overly focused on Donbas has led the Russian military to lose ground in these other regions, which may put it at a disadvantage in future battles.

Pointing this out, the IWS assessed that the overall progress of the war would not be impacted by the Russian military’s potential full capture of Sievierodonetsk. The institute’s report emphasized that this is why Ukrainian forces are not preoccupied with defending the city.

On the other hand, morale within Russian forces seems to have plummeted following overtaxing battles that have led to increased casualties among junior officers. The UK’s Defense Ministry recently concluded that the Russian military incurred significant damage after officers in sizable units like battalions and brigades were recently deployed to serve in the front and center of low-level tactical operations instead of commanding operations from the rear.

Considering this, it’s being projected that Russian forces will have a hard time gaining full control of Luhansk and following up the victory with full-on offensives. Chances are high that they will strengthen their control of occupied territories and focus on touting their “liberation of Donbas.”

“Taking the Donbas [would be] a consolation prize, because Kyiv is now out of Russia’s military grasp,” said Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Though there were multiple watershed moments in the war between Ukraine and Russia throughout the last 100 days, the fact that the two countries failed to reach a definitive outcome yet casts a dark shadow on the peace negotiations that will have to resume, as lives will be further sacrificed.

The Ukrainian government estimated that as of May 23, roughly 4,600 people including 232 children have died in regions under Ukrainian control, while 6,000 to 22,000 people died in Mariupol, where fierce battles were waged. When combined, civilian casualties in Ukraine number as much as 27,000.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian government officials have repeatedly made clear that Ukraine will not concede to Russia in matters related to territory, which will inevitably be a central issue in peace negotiations. They have stated that the return to territorial conditions that were in place before Feb. 24 is their basic precondition for the start of negotiations.

Because it’s unlikely that Russia would give up territories it captured through blood, Ukraine will have to reclaim them through force.

During his phone conversation with major state leaders, including Germany and France on May 28 and Turkey on May 30, Putin merely blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Ultimately, the two sides are likely to rejoin peace negotiations only when the war is at such a stalemate that both believe a military solution is no longer an option.

Unfortunately, time is not yet nigh for serious dialogue to begin, meaning more pain and more sacrifice are on the horizon.

By Shin Gi-sub, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]