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Greenpeace Thailand activists hold up signs as they stand in water outside the location of the APEC summit in Bangkok on Nov. 18-19. (EPA/Yonhap)

Will humankind overcome this unprecedented climate crisis? Representatives from around the world gathered in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh from Nov. 6-18 for the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 27) to discuss countermeasures, but the future seems grim.

This year’s weather has been more than unusual. Europe and Australia suffered from bizarre heat waves, drought and wildfires. Many were killed in unexpected heavy rains in Nigeria and Pakistan. Recent reports have also announced that from 2011 to 2020, 90% of US counties went through floods, hurricanes, and wildfires so serious that they could be declared disaster areas by the federal government.

A few weeks ago, when the conference was coming to a close, research results were published that showed this gloomy reality in figures. According to a report released by the Global Carbon Project, an organization that quantifies global greenhouse gas emissions, the world’s emissions for 2022 are expected to increase by 1% in comparison to last year.

At this rate, global temperature will surpass the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming (compared to 150 years ago) in the early 2030s. When carbon emissions increased by 5.6% last year, there was room for comfort by saying that it was due to the base effect of reduced emissions because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Should we attribute this year’s surge to the fact that many countries, after Russia’s sudden invasion of Ukraine, became concerned about energy shortages and therefore increased their consumption of fossil fuels with high carbon emissions, such as coal?

Questions about whether keeping global temperatures from rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius was feasible were raised in this year’s general meeting. The 2015 Paris Agreement does not make it clear if the 1.5-degree rise is an absolute figure that should be guarded at all costs.

The Paris Agreement stipulates that the increase in global temperatures should be kept below 2 degrees Celsius, and that measures should be taken to ensure that it does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Global average temperatures have already risen 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to 150 years ago. There isn’t a lot of time left until it reaches 1.5 degrees. In order to meet this goal, extreme efforts should be made, such as halving carbon emissions from fossil fuels by 2030. If the goal is eased to 2 degrees rather than 1.5 degrees, there is less pressure to cut down on fossil fuels.

A 0.5-degree difference may not look like much, so some may think it might be wise to focus on the 2-degree goal, but experts think differently. They state that the scale and frequency of natural disasters such as heatwaves, floods and droughts will become much more severe.

The news is not just depressing. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who recently won the Brazilian presidential election, attended this general meeting, and received applause for his announcement that he would actively protect the Amazon. It is expected that reckless logging and forest damage, which was allowed under predecessor President Jair Bolsonaro, will be put on hold.

The US and several countries in Europe also reaffirmed their willingness to reduce carbon emissions, saying that they will try to keep the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Some predict that many countries, which have become more aware of the importance of energy security due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will invest more in low-carbon energy.

Abnormal weather syndromes have already become part of our reality, and they are getting worse. Reducing carbon emissions is not a choice, but a matter of survival. Are we doing the best that we can?

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

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