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Mira Rapp-Hooper, the special assistant and senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the White House National Security Council, speaks to CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha for a conversation on the Biden administration’s North Korea policy on March 4. (courtesy of CSIS)

A senior White House official recently signaled a willingness to discuss “interim steps” in nuclear negotiations with North Korea.

The message was that if Pyongyang takes threat reduction measures ahead of complete denuclearization, the US may be able to offer corresponding measures such as relief on sanctions. It’s a move that could be seen as Washington signaling a change in its negotiation strategy to get Pyongyang to agree to discussions.

In a special talk at the 2024 JoongAng Ilbo-CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) Forum on Monday, Mira Rapp-Hooper, the special assistant and senior director for East Asia and Oceania at the White House National Security Council, stressed that the US “remains committed to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

“But we are also going to consider interim steps on that pathway to denuclearization, provided that these steps will make the region and the world safer,” she added.

“We are ready and willing to engage in discussions with the DPRK about threat reduction, especially currently in light of the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” she also said, suggesting that the interim steps in question would be intended to reduce the nuclear threat posed by the North.

While the Joe Biden administration’s North Korea policy remains focused on the objective of complete denuclearization of the peninsula, it has reportedly proposed unconditional participation in dialogue in around 20 back-channel communications with Pyongyang to date.

But North Korea has rejected dialogue with the US, focusing instead on continuing to beef up its nuclear and missile capabilities and pursuing stronger collaboration with Russia in various areas.

In this situation, analysts are considering whether the White House senior aide’s public comments could be read as an overt signal to the North that the US may be willing to change the principles of its North Korea policy and nuclear negotiations. With North Korea insisting on being recognized as a nuclear state and refusing to take part in negotiations that name denuclearization as a prerequisite, the remarks may be a sign that the US is considering a strategic shift.

Korea Peace Foundation Secretary-General Wi Sung-lac — a former special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs who is well-versed in negotiations with Pyongyang — said the comments “could mean that the US will not rule a negotiation approach where they relieve sanctions in exchange for North Korea suspending or freezing its nuclear weapon development or abandoning certain nuclear facilities.”

“This could be seen as a signal from the US to North Korea,” he suggested.

In terms of the background behind this approach, he said, “The US could be feeling alarmed about the rapid progression of relations between Russia and North Korea, or it could be based on the US’ determination of the seriousness of the North’s ongoing nuclear and missile capability improvements.”

While some analysts said the US is not in a position to adopt a strategy of dialogue with North Korea with the presidential election looming so close, the situation with the election could actually have raised the need to manage the mounting tensions with Pyongyang and troubling developments on the nuclear issue.

Both the US and South Korea have emphasized that denuclearization is the ultimate goal, and since they have pursued a step-by-step solution in past nuclear negotiations — with an initial freeze stage ahead of eventual denuclearization — the remarks from Rapp-Hooper were not entirely a new development.

But it is seen as unusual for an official with authority in the US to make such remarks publicly.

While it may not happen immediately, the approach of seeking discussions with Pyongyang that make the priority aim nuclear weapon “reduction” rather than denuclearization could lead to claims that this amounts to acknowledging the North as a nuclear state. If Donald Trump returns to the presidency, there is a real chance that he could attempt to initiate dialogue with Pyongyang that does not clearly set denuclearization as its ultimate goal.

Even among US experts, there have been growing calls for Seoul and Washington to adopt a new strategy on Pyongyang that focuses on threat reduction — including arms controls and trust-building — as the growing threat posed by the North’s nuclear and missile capabilities makes the idea of getting it to abandon its nuclear weapons all at once appear less and less realistic.

In a United States Institute of Peace contribution on Monday, Adam Mount, a senior fellow with the Federation of American Scientists, suggested arms control as a way of stabilizing the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

“Because there is little possibility of disarming the regime in Pyongyang at an acceptable cost in the foreseeable future, the United States-South Korea alliance needs a strategy to coexist peacefully with a nuclear-armed North Korea,” he wrote.

“[The US-South Korea alliance’s] military posture has exceeded the requirements of deterrence and is maintaining an unnecessarily high risk of North Korean nuclear use,” he also said.

In particular, Mount proposed arms control negotiations focused on reducing tactical nuclear weapons, which the North is more likely to use in the event of a nuclear crisis.

By Park Min-hee, senior staff writer

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