hankyoreh

A person pushes a bicycle on a narrow path between the ruins of buildings demolished by Israeli attacks in the vicinity of Al Shifa Hospital, the largest medical center in Gaza, on April 3, 2024. (AFP/Yonhap)

Sunday, April 7, will mark six months of Israel’s war on Gaza, which was sparked by Israel’s goal to eradicate the Palestinian militant group Hamas from the small strip of land on the Mediterranean Sea.
 
There seems to be no end in sight to this war, which has taken the lives of over 33,000 people in Gaza, while also revealing cracks within the US-led international order that supports Israel.
 
The war in Gaza was borne out of the confusion in the geopolitical whirlwind of the Middle East, beginning on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing over 1,200 people.
 
Many believe that the Abraham Accords, initiated by the US, triggered Hamas’ surprise attack. In September 2020, during the Donald Trump administration, the US successfully brokered the normalization of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel. This made the UAE the first Gulf Arab state to do so, with Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco soon following suit.
 
The goal of the Abraham Accords, which affirms that Isaac, the ancestor of Jews, and Ishmael, the ancestor of Arabs, are both descended from Abraham to commit both countries to peaceful coexistence, was to establish diplomatic relations between Israel and its Sunni Muslim ally, Saudi Arabia. Israel was driven by the goal of bolstering solidarity with Sunni Muslims, which have strong ties with Western forces.
 
However, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, stated right after the surprise attack, “We say to all countries, including our Arab brothers, that this entity [Israel], which cannot protect itself in the face of resistors, cannot provide you with any protection.”
 
“All the normalization agreements that you signed with that entity cannot resolve this [Palestinian] conflict,” he added.
 
Any advancements in Saudi-Israeli diplomatic ties have been cut short, and Israel’s invasion of Gaza has escalated criticism of Israel to unprecedented levels, not only in the Arab region but also in the West.
 
The US is facing an unprecedented dilemma. Firstly, US diplomacy and full military forces, which had been tied up in the war in Ukraine since late February 2022, have once again been dispersed to the Middle East. The US is being held back from facing off with China, which it hoped to focus on fully.
 
Secondly, with the country having no choice but to provide unconditional support to Israel during the war, foreign affairs and national security risks in the Middle East have spiraled uncontrollably. Thirdly, Israel is holding the US back by ratcheting up the tenor of its war in Gaza.
 
This is evidenced by anti-US militant attacks on US troops in Syria and Iraq and attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea by Yemeni Houthi rebels. The Houthi rebels in Yemen symbolize a change in the Middle East’s geopolitical order. Saudi Arabia, which intervened in the Yemeni civil war and fought the Houthi rebels, has recently turned a blind eye to Houthi attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea, which could be interpreted as a compromise with Iran. The US and UK launched airstrikes on Houthi strongholds in February but have yet to fully eradicate the group.
 
Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet is continuing to assault Gaza and causing massive civilian casualties, ignoring US pressure for a ceasefire. Even discouragement from Washington has failed to deter Israel from planning a full-scale assault on Rafah, a city in the southern region of Gaza that houses 1.4 million people — more than half of Gaza’s population of  2.3 million.
 
For Israel, the Gaza war is part of a shadow war with Iran. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Israel and Iran have become the Middle East’s biggest adversaries and have engaged in proxy wars and sabotage operations. Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Israel has directly attacked Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as well as the Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah.
 
On Monday, the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, was hit by an airstrike that killed seven people, including 63-year-old Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The strike was attributed to Israeli forces by both the Syrian and Iranian governments.
 
Zahedi was the highest-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander to be killed in an Israeli strike, raising fears of an escalation in the Gaza war. While the likelihood of the shadow war escalating into open warfare is still small, Israel is demonstrating its willingness to engage in combat if the situation calls for it.
 
Netanyahu’s far-right government is escalating the confrontation as war is helping the administration stay in power. The US has been unable to rein in Israel’s recklessness, weakening its diplomatic leverage over Arab states like Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia is also facing a difficult predicament. After normalizing relations with Iran in March 2023 with the help of China, the country was on its way to ensuring its security and influence in the Middle East through rapprochement with Israel, a strategy that has been disrupted since the outbreak of the war.

While the international community still holds onto the hope that the US will act as a successful moderator, the US’ efforts to resolve this conflict diplomatically are proving fruitless.
 
The absence of a power to act as a leader in this crisis has scattered existing alliances, friendships, and affinities in the Middle East, leading each to fight their own battles.
 
The war in Gaza, which came not long after the war in Ukraine, is showing how fissures in the liberal international order, which is all too reliant on US hegemony, will manifest in the Middle East.

By Jung E-gil, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]