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Professor Stephan Haggard, a distinguished professor at UC San Diego and an expert on North Korea’s economy, speaks at the forum “Seeking South Korea’s Path Forward on a Turbulent Korean Peninsula” at the Korea Press Center in downtown Seoul on Aug. 21, 2024. (Kim Bong-gyu/Hankyoreh)

Koreans are watching closely to see how the country will be impacted by the outcome of the US presidential election this November.

That question was addressed by Stephan Haggard, a distinguished professor at UC San Diego who is an expert on the North Korean economy, during a forum titled “Seeking South Korea’s Path Forward on a Turbulent Korean Peninsula” held at the Korea Press Center in downtown Seoul on Wednesday.

According to Haggard, Kamala Harris, if elected, is likely to uphold Biden’s current policies. But a Trump victory would mean major changes, including increased pressure on Korea and other American allies to cover more of the cost of defense.

Haggard noted that since both candidates are determined to counter China, the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy is likely to be maintained no matter who wins. But he did predict there would be a big difference between Trump and Harris in their treatment of American allies.

“Whatever you think about the Trump presidency with respect to the alliances, I think [. . .] Korea is going to face pressure in the Special Measures Agreement to pay more,” Haggard noted.

Haggard added that Harris values Japan-Korea cooperation and wants Korea to expand its regional and global role, which could include potential cooperation with Quad and AUKUS. The Quad, short for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is an arrangement between the US, Japan, India and Australia, while AUKUS is a security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US.

Haggard also thinks that North Korea-US relations will be heavily affected by who becomes president.

“I think you're going to see a Harris administration focusing primarily on the alliance, strengthening deterrence, and the Nuclear Consultative Group,” he noted. “But I don't see a grand initiative coming out of the Harris administration on North Korea.”

But if Trump is reelected, Haggard said, there’s a possibility of another big event along the lines of Trump’s summits with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019.

But Haggard raised questions about whether North Korea would respond to any such overtures because it “has no interest in unification” and “is not going to sit down and negotiate away its nuclear program.”

Wi Sung-lac, former Korean ambassador to Russia and a member of the panel at the forum, generally agreed with Haggard’s assessment, while adding that a Trump victory could be very awkward for Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who has eagerly aligned himself with the Biden administration’s policy.

The “Seeking South Korea’s Path Forward on a Turbulent Korean Peninsula” at the Korea Press Center in downtown Seoul on Aug. 21, 2024. (Kim Bong-gyu/Hankyoreh)

“If Trump is elected, big changes are on the horizon. Trump scorns the alliance system and will be reluctant to fulfill the US’ responsibilities, which could create many headaches for Korea. That will be particularly awkward for the Yoon administration, which has mostly based its foreign policy on strengthening its alliance [with the US],” Wi observed.

In regard to North Korea-US relations, Wi predicted that the situation would improve no matter who won. “If Harris is elected, leaving the Democrats in power, she could push a little harder for dialogue, given the four-year gap we’ve had,” he said.

Wi also addressed the possibility of Trump returning to office. “If Trump is reelected, Kim Jong-un will probably send him a congratulatory cable, and Trump will make a response. I presume that Kim could get over the Hanoi debacle if he has a chance to speak directly with Trump.”

Kim Geon, a lawmaker with the People Power Party and another member of the panel, predicted that Korea wouldn’t be greatly affected no matter who is elected US president.

Kim formerly served as director of the Office of Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“I wish we wouldn’t get so stressed out about the US presidential election. The Korea-US alliance is grounded in our shared interests. Considering that China has become what the US regards as its greatest strategic rival, the fact is that the alliance is important not only for Korea’s interests, but also for the US’ interests,” Kim said.

Regardless of who is elected the next US president, Kim said, the North Korean issue will probably not be a priority.

“Whoever gets elected, they’ll have to initially focus their efforts on Russia’s war [against Ukraine]. They’ll also have to direct resources toward the Middle East issue, which is very significant for the US,” Kim said.

“Realistically speaking, the next US administration will have to focus nearly all its energy on dealing with those two issues when it begins work next year. North Korea is unlikely to be a priority under those conditions.”

By Shin Hyeong-cheol, staff reporter

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