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US President Donald Trump. (UPI/Yonhap)

A study has found that US President Donald Trump’s new 15% global tariff, imposed as a response to the Supreme Court’s annulment of the president’s “reciprocal” tariffs, will most greatly benefit nations such as China and Brazil that have positioned themselves against Trump. US allies such as South Korea and the UK will actually suffer from this shift. 

On Monday, the trade research institute Global Trade Alert released a data analysis report examining how the tariff will affect the top 20 countries sourcing US imports. Trump’s imposition of a 15% tariff on all global imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 has led to significant declines in the trade-weighted tariffs for Brazil, China and India: the three countries’ tariff rates decreased by 13.6%, 7.1%, and 5.6%, respectively, in comparison to pre-ruling levels. 

Conversely, South Korea, the UK, Italy and Singapore saw increases of 0.6%, 2.1%, 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively. 

“The shift from the pre-ruling tariff regime to Section 122 at 15% produces clear winners and losers among the top 20 US import sources,” the report said. 

After the US Supreme Court ruled last week that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, Trump declared a 15% tariff as a workaround, effective from Tuesday. This tariff is valid for 150 days, requiring congressional approval for any extension.

The report explained that Brazil, China and India, which previously faced relatively high tariffs, saw their burden reduced, while countries like the UK and Italy, which had lower existing tariffs, found their rates increased.

“China still faces the highest relative tariff burden [at 29.7%], but the gap has narrowed. Countries that were lightly taxed before now sit closer to the average,” it noted.

Section 122 of the Trade Act, which serves as the legal basis for the 15% flat tariff, stipulates that tariffs may be imposed in cases of serious balance-of-payments deficits. However, China, the country with which the US has the largest trade deficit, is poised to benefit from this new policy. 

In an interview with the Financial Times, Johannes Fritz, economist and the Global Trade Alert chief executive who conducted the analysis, said, “Countries including China, Brazil, Mexico and Canada that were most bitterly criticized by the White House and targeted with IEEPA tariffs under special executive orders have seen their tariffs fall the most.”

Looking at specific imported items, the Financial Times projected that tariff rates on clothing, furniture, toys, and plastics would also decrease, benefiting Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia, which hold trade surpluses with the US. However, the US is exploring additional measures using tools like Section 301 of the Trade Act, meaning tariffs or trade barriers against China and others could rise further. 

“The [Trump] administration has signaled that it will now focus on statutes that do allow them to impose tariffs, so in practice the game now begins anew,” Fritz stated. 

By Lee Jeong-yeon, Beijing correspondent

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