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By Ha Eo-young, staff reporter and Seong Yeon-cheol, Beijing correspondent

The new South Korean air defense identification zone (KADIZ) - which has been expanded to include Ieo Island, which is administered by South Korea, and the Korean territories of Hong Island and Mara Island - will take effect on Dec. 15. While experts concede that Seoul’s decision to expand its ADIZ was a natural decision for a sovereign state, they have expressed concerns over possible conflict in the airspace above Ieo Island, where the ADIZs of South Korea, China, and Japan overlap.

The main reason that the ADIZ expansion is being viewed positively is that it creates a basis for effective management of the airspace.

“This was a completely reasonable move for a sovereign state to make. There is a lot of controversy about Ieo Island, and in order to fully guarantee the right to maritime administration, it was necessary to expand the ADIZ,” said Kim Hyun-soo, professor at Inha University’s law school. “Sea and sky are inextricably linked. This means that effective management of the place is a precondition for securing maritime jurisdiction in the neighboring waters.”

But experts point out that with political instability in Northeast Asia increasing because of the confrontation between the US and China, one problem is that the government has not prepared a contingency plan for an unexpected encounter between Korean, Japanese, and Chinese military aircraft. They say that the government allowed public impatience to push it into a rash decision.

“In particular, Ieo Island is a problem. There is a possibility that tensions between South Korea, China, and Japan will increase through some reason or the other,” said Ku Bon-hak, professor at Hallym University of Graduate Studies. “If China makes a show of force, we do not have the appropriate means to counter this.”

“Some important questions are whether there is protocol in place for crisis management in the event of a hostile encounter and whether South Korea, China, and Japan are discussing this,” said Jung Uk-sik, president of the Peace Network. “If one side does not accept the other’s demands, if, for example, Chinese military aircraft in South Korean airspace ignore a demand to leave, that could obviously be the spark for conflict.”

Discussion among South Korea, China, and Japan is necessary in order to prevent an unexpected clash from occurring in such a situation. While the Ministry of National Defense said on Dec. 8 that it had briefed China and Japan about the new ADIZ before the announcement, the issue is that such discussion will not be easy in the future. In the sense that the countries’ air defense identification zones are connected with the military, on a fundamental level they are mutually exclusive.

“Since both China and Japan claim the right to administer the area and since it is connected with territorial disputes, it will not be easy to make progress in discussions,” Ku said. “On a practical level, I think the best option is for all parties to acknowledge that this is a contested area and to leave it at that.”

“It would good if we could leave the existing protocol in place and discuss the remaining issues another time, but it is unclear whether the other two countries will wait,” he said.

“What I am worried about is how South Korea will respond if China announces that it is expanding its ADIZ into the West [Yellow] Sea,” Jung said. “Another problem is if Japan includes the airspace over Dokdo in its ADIZ. Since there have been no prior talks about how to resolve these concerns, it will not be easy to have such talks in the future, either.”

China responded to South Korea’s expansion of its ADIZ by expressing regret, while the US and Japan in general seemed to accept the expansion.

“China expresses regret over the ROK’s decision to expand its ADIZ,” said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei in his regular press briefing on Dec. 9. “China will stay in communication with the ROK based on equality and mutual respect. We hope that the ROK will meet China halfway.”

As to the inclusion of Ieo Island in the new ADIZ, Hong said, “Suyan [the Chinese name for Ieo Island] is a submerged reef. It is not a territory. China and ROK have consensus on that. The relevant issues can only be solved through negotiation of maritime demarcation.”

“In keeping with the principles of equality and mutual respect, China hopes that it can maintain communication with ROK and move forward together,” Hong added.

“I do not think that South Korea’s expansion of its air defense identification zone will present any immediate problems to its relations with Japan,” said Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, spokesperson for the Japanese government, at a press conference on Dec. 9

Observing that South Korea’s air defense identification zone does not include any Japanese airspace, that South Korea did not demand civilian aircraft give prior notification when they fly through, and that there is a military hotline in place between South Korean and Japan, Suga explained that this was entirely different from China’s declaration of its ADIZ.

As a measure to supplement the expansion of the South Korean ADIZ, the Ministry of National Defense decided to increase the number of patrol flights in the airspace above Ieo Island, where the ADIZs of South Korea, Japan, and China overlap. It also decided to consider the option of relocating F-15K jets, which can stay in the air for longer, from their current location of Daegu airbase to Gwangju, as the Gwangju airfield is closer to Ieo Island.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]