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South Korea and the US last held their Vigilant Ace joint air exercise from Dec. 4 to 8, 2017. (South Korean Air Force)

South Korea and the US have decided not to hold Vigilant Ace, a joint air exercise, this year. This will be the second consecutive year that they skip the exercise, typically held at the end of the year. This year’s exercise hadn’t been formally announced, and now the two countries have apparently finalized their decision to suspend it.

The move appears to be an attempt by the two countries’ militaries to provide “support from the rear” for ongoing diplomatic efforts by the governments to make progress in negotiations, such as by resuming working-level talks between North Korea and the US before the end of the year. Though North Korea has repeatedly and vociferously opposed South Korea and the US’ large-scale joint military exercises as representing a “policy of hostility” toward it, it remains to be seen whether the North will regard this as a friendly overture by the two governments and move swiftly to initiate more working-level negotiations with the US.

When asked on Nov. 3 whether the Vigilant Ace exercise would be held, a South Korean government official said that “the South Korean and US militaries are deliberating a number of related matters, including a plan [not to hold the exercises this year].”

“Nothing has been confirmed officially,” the official added, but multiple sources in the military said that the two sides have essentially settled on not holding the exercises.

South Korea and the US will reportedly be making this plan official during their 51st Security Consultative Meeting, which will be held in Seoul in the middle of November. Instead, the ROK Air Force and the US 7th Air Force, stationed in South Korea, are reportedly planning to hold exercises at the level of the battalion or smaller in December, in a similar manner to last year.

South Korea and the US have already announced that several large-scale exercises held annually — including Key Resolve and Foal Eagle, in March, and Ulchi Freedom Guardian, in August — would all be ending as of this year. The authorities added that they would be giving these exercises more neutral names, such as “19-1” or “19-2 alliance exercise,” and carrying them out throughout the year at the battalion level or below.

Vigilant Ace is an air exercise held by the South Korean and US air forces in order to prepare for actual combat conditions. Its objective is to improve their joint operational capability and combat effectiveness.

The exercise was carried out for the first time in 2015 under the name of Peninsula Operational Readiness Exercise, or Pen-ORE for short. After North Korea launched its Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in November 2017, the US took the unusual step of assigning a large number of the US’ fifth-generation aircraft, including six F-22 raptors (top-of-the-line stealth fighters), six F-35A fighters, and 12 F-35B fighters, cranking up pressure on the North.

North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country angrily attacked the exercise, labeling it a “severe military provocation leading toward a nuclear war.”

Koo Kab-woo, professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said that South Korea and the US’ plan to suspend the exercises is “a positive signal.”

“But since the current method [of temporarily deferring the exercises] sends the message that ‘the exercises can be resumed at any time,’ it’s not enough to restore inter-Korean relations or take the lead in North Korea-US relations,” Koo said.

“North Korea could raise doubts about the sustainability of the delay while arguing that [South Korea] promised to ban joint exercises with the US and the deployment of US strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula” in the inter-Korean military agreement reached on Sept. 19, 2018, the scholar added.

“Since [this delay] coincides with the continuing rollout of F-35A fighters and other weapon systems acquired by previous administrations, we’re sending mixed messages to North Korea. We need to set a consistent policy in which we don’t hold joint exercises with the US or import cutting-edge weaponry while negotiations are underway,” said a senior official at a state-funded research institute who spoke on condition of anonymity.

By Noh Ji-won, staff reporter

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