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The Japanese Ministry of Defense said that North Korean projectiles “may have been a ballistic missile.”

At 7:06 am on Thursday, an “unidentified projectile” rose up into the air from the Hamju area of North Korea’s South Hamgyong Province, which borders the East Sea. The projectile moved east — in the direction of Japan — and reached a maximum altitude of 60 kilometers (37 miles), traveling around 450 kilometers (280 miles) before falling into the East Sea.

Nineteen minutes later, a second projectile was launched. This one too followed a similar trajectory to the first before coming down in the sea.

South Korean and Japanese officials were on edge after North Korea’s launch of the projectiles, which came four days after its cruise missile launch Sunday.

In a text message sent to reporters at 7:25 am that day, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) public affairs office issued its first report, stating that North Korea had “launched an unidentified projectile toward the East Sea.” The second report came 40 minutes later at 8:15 am.

“[North Korea] launched two unidentified projectiles toward the East Sea from the South Hamgyong Province area this morning, and South Korean and US intelligence authorities are currently conducting a close analysis of additional information,” it read.

In a final message sent at 11:18 am, the JCS wrote, “The [South Korean] military has detected two short-range missiles launched toward the East Sea from the area of Hamju, South Hamgyong Province in North Korea, at approximately 0706 and 0725 hours this morning.”

“The projectiles were detected as having traveled a distance of approximately 450 kilometers and reached an altitude of approximately 60 kilometers. South Korean and US intelligence authorities are currently closely analyzing additional details,” it continued.

When asked about the projectiles’ identity in a “back briefing” Q&A session with reporters, the JCS said, “We are analyzing the intelligence, while strongly considering the possibility that they were ballistic missiles.”

At 9 am the same day, the Blue House held an emergency meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) standing committee, during which it shared “profound concerns about these missile launches having taken place at a time when the US is reviewing its North Korea policy.”

It also announced plans to “intensify related discussions while carefully analyzing the background and aims behind these launches with other concerned countries, including the US.”

The situation was similarly tense in Japan. According to a report in the Asahi Shimbun newspaper, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga issued orders at 7:08 am — minutes after the launch — to “focus our energies of gathering and analyzing intelligence and sharing fast and accurate information with the public.”

A roughly 10-minute NSC meeting was also held at 8 am.

This photo provided by the Korean Central News Agency shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un overseeing the test launch of short-range missiles in the Hodo Peninsula near Wonsan, Kangwon Province, on July 25, 2017. (Yonhap News)

The Japanese Ministry of Defense sent out two messages. Its initial bulletin said that North Korea launched an “object that may have been a ballistic missile.”

In its second message, it wrote, “North Korea appears to have launched a total of two ballistic missiles in an eastward direction. They are estimated to have each traveled around 450 kilometers at a lower altitude than the Scuds [short-range ballistic missiles] that North Korea has possessed since before.”

If the projectiles were ballistic missiles, they would be the first ones launched by North Korea in nearly a year since March 29, 2020.

Some subtle differences emerged in the information shared by South Korea and Japanese military authorities that day. While the official information from South Korea used terms such as “unidentified projectile” and “short-range missile” instead of “ballistic missile,” the Japanese information said the projectile “may have been a ballistic missile” as early as its initial report, and conclusively called the projectiles “ballistic missiles” in its second.

Also striking is that Japan specified each of the launch times two minutes earlier than South Korea. CNN and other US news outlets quoted US officials as saying North Korea had launched ballistic missiles.

The reason for the subtle differences in South Korea and Japan’s intelligence judgments on the same projectiles can be traced to their different attitudes on the Korean Peninsula situation.

Seoul is hoping for a resumption of the “Korean Peninsula peace process,” with North Korea halting its needless provocations and quickly returning to dialogue with the US.

Washington is hoping for the same thing. Commenting on the North Korean cruise missile launch on Sunday, US President Joe Biden said it was not a “provocation.”

In a Tuesday press conference, a senior White House official stressed that the launch had been a violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions, adding that the US hoped North Korea would not perceive the situation as one where the US was not open to dialogue.

The UNSC has prohibited any kind of ballistic missile launched by North Korea, so if the North actually did launch ballistic missiles, it would have been a violation of UNSC resolutions.

It would also read a rejection of Washington's “goodwill” message in its hopes of resuming dialogue. It’s a situation that stands to pose a strain on the Korean Peninsula situation in several regards.

But Tokyo’s position is that maximum pressure needs to be placed on Pyongyang until it agrees to implement practical denuclearization measures. If the latest projectiles are found to have been ballistic missiles, Japan may ramp up its pressure, citing the violation of UNSC resolutions.

Suga said, “North Korea has launched two ballistic missiles. Its first missile launch in approximately a year, this is a threat to peace and security in Japan and the region and a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.”

With the subtle differences in the South Korean and Japanese intelligence assessments of the projectiles launched by North Korea, a tense tug-of-war appears likely to ensue between the two sides over the US’s current North Korea policy review, which is to be finalized shortly.

Next week, the US plans to summon Blue House NSC Director Suh Hoon and Japanese National Security Secretariat Secretary General Shigeru Kitamura to explain the results of its North Korea policy review.

The situation promises to be a grim battle of nerves between South Korea, hoping to leave open some room for dialogue, and Japan, which aims to ratchet up pressure.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]