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People wait in line at a temporary screening center in Seoul to get tested for COVID-19 on Sunday. (Yonhap News)

The Delta variant of the coronavirus was detected at more than twice the rate of the Alpha variant in the greater Seoul area last week. That raises the possibility that Delta will achieve dominance — becoming the most common variant in all COVID-19 cases — even sooner than South Korea’s disease control authorities had predicted.

The number of new cases of COVID-19 reported on Sunday was down slightly from the previous day but remained above 1,300 for the third day in a row, as the fourth wave of COVID-19 showed no signs of relenting.

“The virus variants are still being detected at one-third of the total, which means a majority variant hasn’t emerged yet. But what’s disturbing is that Delta is gradually increasing and is now being detected more often than Alpha. Delta was detected at over twice the rate of Alpha in the greater Seoul area last week,” said Son Young-rae, director of strategy and planning at Korea’s Central Disaster Management Headquarters, in the daily briefing on Sunday.

Korea’s Central Disease Control Headquarters reported Sunday that 1,324 more people had tested positive for COVID-19 the previous day, as the tally topped 1,300 for the third day in a row.

The number of confirmed cases on Saturday was only 54 lower than Friday, even though about 39% fewer tests (74,585) were run on Saturday. (Typically, fewer tests are done on weekends than on weekdays.) That has prompted concerns that even more cases will be confirmed from the middle of this week.

As of 6 pm Sunday, local governments had recorded 928 confirmed cases for the day, suggesting that the total tally reported on Monday would be around 1,300.

Worryingly, the authorities reported Sunday that 964 people had tested positive for COVID-19 in the greater Seoul area the day before. With Seoul area cases staying above 900 or 1,000 since Wednesday, there are fears that Delta is dominating the surge in cases.

Jeong Eun-kyeong, commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), mentioned “the possibility of Delta gaining dominance in August” on Thursday, but it’s looking more likely that that timeframe will be pushed forward.

The percentage of new cases that are outside the greater Seoul area has been above 20% since Friday, gradually increasing over those three days (22.1%, 22.7%, and 24.7%).

The average daily COVID-19 caseload over the past week (July 4-10) has been 799 in the greater Seoul area, up 267.7 from the previous week, and 193.4 in the rest of the country, up 123.7. That has led some to predict that there will be an exodus from the Seoul area to other parts of the country partly because Level 4 social distancing measures, the strictest level, will be taking effect there on Monday and partly because of the upcoming summer vacation season.

“Regions outside of the greater Seoul area must not let their guard down. Other areas are reporting 25% of total cases. We request that local government leaders act responsibly and move quickly to stop the spread of the disease through preemptive measures,” Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum said during a meeting at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters.

The steep climb in new cases is making it harder for Korea’s epidemiologists to keep up with contact tracing. Of the 12,975 cases identified during the past two weeks (since June 28), 30.7% (3,981) are still under investigation, with the path of transmission still unconfirmed. That’s the highest figure since disease control authorities started tracking it in April 2020.

The percentage of patients that tested positive while in self-quarantine has also fallen from 47.1% in the past month to 36.9% in the past week.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in plans to chair a meeting at the Blue House on Monday to review disease control efforts in the greater Seoul area. During the meeting, Moon will discuss ways to stabilize the situation in the Seoul area with Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum, Seoul mayor Oh Se-hoon, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung, Incheon Mayor Park Nam-choon, and Jeong, the KDCA commissioner.

“The current number of new cases reflects the situation of the outbreak one week ago, and implementing Level 4 on Monday won’t immediately lead to a major decrease in the number of cases. It’s typical for the caseload to rise when indoor activities increase during the rainy season, and the daily caseload could keep increasing to 1,400-1,500,” said Chun Byung-chul, a professor of preventive medicine at the Korea University College of Medicine.

“It tends to take a week or two for raising the [social distancing] level to have a visible impact. This week, we could see as many as 1,500 or 1,600 cases a day. Two weeks of Level 4 aren’t likely to bring the caseload below a thousand, so we’ll have to shift from a strategy of suppression to one of mitigation in August and September while the vaccination rate is rising,” said Jung Jae-hun, a professor of preventive medicine at the Gachon University College of Medicine.

By Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporter

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