hankyoreh

As people wait to be tested for COVID-19 at a temporary screening station near Gangnam Station in Seoul on Wednesday, a worker carries out a sign saying that they’re stopping testing for the day. (Yonhap News)

In countries such as the US and the UK that have been swept by the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus, the latest wave peaked after a month and is now starting to recede. But because South Korea has seen fewer overall cases so far in the pandemic, experts say that the Omicron wave is likely to be more drawn-out here.

According to figures from Our World in Data accessed on Wednesday, the daily COVID-19 caseload in the US has been declining since reaching a seven-day rolling average of 800,000 cases between Jan. 12 and 16. The first case of Omicron was detected in the US on Dec. 1, suggesting the wave took between 43 and 47 days to reach its peak.

The UK saw its highest seven-day average of COVID-19 cases (182,000) on Jan. 5, 40 days after its first Omicron case was identified on Nov. 27. Since Jan. 19, when the number of cases decreased to 92,000, the UK has begun to phase out quarantine measures including work-from-home recommendations, indoor mask mandates, and vaccine passports.

According to an analysis by the Nikkei, it takes around 27 days from the time that Omicron becomes the dominant variant until case numbers peak. When the Nikkei measured the period between the day when the caseload doubled week-over-week to the day when cases dropped 10% from the previous week, it found that it took 31 days in Johannesburg, 30 days in Manhattan, 24 days in Paris and 23 days in London.

But those examples may be of limited utility for predicting the Omicron wave in Korea. Korea has had markedly fewer COVID-19 cases than countries such as the US and the UK, and its booster inoculation rate is much higher.

In contrast with countries where Omicron generally became the dominant strain within three weeks of its appearance, it took more than seven weeks for Omicron to become dominant in Korea after the strain was first detected here on Dec. 1. The UK and the US have faced huge waves of COVID-19 leading to infection rates of 234,474 and 215,495 cases per population of 1 million, respectively — much higher than Korea’s rate of just 14,618 cases per 1 million as of Monday.

Until last year, Australia’s COVID-19 incidence rate was similar to that of Korea. But Australia’s caseload began to shoot up after Omicron started spreading. The country has also been seeing an increase in deaths since the beginning of January. As of Monday, 26.3% of the Australian population had gotten a COVID-19 booster, just half that of Korea.

While the Omicron surge has been short but brutal in the US and the UK, the surge in Korea is likely to go more slowly and last longer. Korea’s disease control authorities expect that Korea will be able to reach herd immunity if large numbers of people catch the Omicron strain of COVID-19, but they’re trying to arrange for a soft landing.

Since Korea has had fewer COVID-19 cases thus far, a huge wave on the level of the US could produce a massive surge of patients that could overwhelm Korea’s medical system.

“The objective of disease control during the Omicron transition is to manage the wave of infections to keep things as stable as possible. Our goals are minimizing critical cases and fatalities, preventing the collapse of the medical system and minimizing social and economic damage,” an official from Korea’s Central Disaster Management Headquarters said on Wednesday.

“It took two months for Omicron to become the dominant strain in Korea, unlike other countries. In our analysis, that’s because Koreans are diligent about wearing masks and because the full vaccination rate for the adult population is at 96%. It will take longer for this wave to crest and recede,” said Jung Ki-suck, a pulmonary care specialist at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital.

Experts advise the Korean authorities to have contingency plans in place for various outcomes of this wave.

“Koreans have been good about wearing masks and social distancing, and our booster inoculation rate is above 50%. That seems to be why it’s taken longer for Omicron to become the dominant strain,” said Kim Dong-hyun, professor of social medicine at the Hallym University College of Medicine.

“Because of various factors, it’s not easy to predict whether [the Omicron wave] will be fast and furious, or whether it will drag on for a while. We need to have a response strategy in place for every scenario,” Kim said.

By Lim Jae-hee, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]