[Hankyoreh poll] Yoon Suk-yeol leads Lee Jae-myung at 38.8% to 32.6%

Posted on : 2022-02-07 17:49 KST Modified on : 2022-02-07 17:49 KST
45% of respondents felt that Yoon was likely to win the election, compared to 35% for Lee
Democratic Party presidential nominee Lee Jae-myung (center, left photo) takes part in a ceremony commemorating the late former President Roh Moo-hyun on Sunday. On the same day, People Power Party presidential nominee (center, right photo) takes part in a memorial ceremony at the May 18th National Cemetery. (Left: Kim Bong-gyu/The Hankyoreh; right: Yonhap News)
Democratic Party presidential nominee Lee Jae-myung (center, left photo) takes part in a ceremony commemorating the late former President Roh Moo-hyun on Sunday. On the same day, People Power Party presidential nominee (center, right photo) takes part in a memorial ceremony at the May 18th National Cemetery. (Left: Kim Bong-gyu/The Hankyoreh; right: Yonhap News)

With 30 days left until South Korea elects its next president, a poll by the Hankyoreh found Democratic Party presidential nominee Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol locked in a tight match within the margin of error — though the gap between the two nominees’ ratings widened compared to that in a Hankyoreh poll conducted 100 days out from the election.

According to a survey conducted by polling company Kstat Research commissioned by the Hankyoreh, in which 1,000 voters across the country were asked to rate the suitability of presidential candidates from Thursday to Friday, results showed Lee polling at 32.6% and Yoon at 38.8%.

The minor opposition People’s Party nominee Ahn Cheol-soo and minor progressive Justice Party nominee Sim Sang-jung trailed the frontrunners at 10.8% and 2.9%, respectively. The survey had a confidence level of 95% and a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Compared to the results of a poll commissioned by the Hankyoreh 100 days before election day on Nov. 29 of last year, in which Lee polled at 34.4% and Yoon at 36.1%, support for Lee fell by 1.8 percentage points while support for Yoon rose by 2.7 percentage points. Accordingly, the gap between the two nominees’ ratings widened from 1.7 percentage points to 6.2 percentage points.

Support for Lee remained at a standstill or dropped in some of the key battlefields of the upcoming presidential election, such as Seoul, the southwestern Honam region, and the areas of Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province.

Notably, Lee’s rating dropped by 8.8 percentage points from 62.2% in November to 53.4% in Gwangju and the Jeolla region — the bedrock of support for the Democratic Party. In Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province, Lee’s rating fell by 3.8 percentage points from 30.2% to 26.4%. The only places Lee saw an uptick in ratings were Daejeon, North and South Chungcheong provinces, and Sejong, where his support increased from 37.2% to 40.5%, and Gangwon and Jeju, where his poll numbers jumped from 22% to 37.2%.

When asked, “Who do you think will win the election regardless of who you support?” 45.1% of respondents chose Yoon as opposed to 35.3% who answered Lee, with Yoon in the lead beyond the margin of error. Even among undecided voters who responded that they did not support any candidate, Yoon was projected to have a higher chance of being elected, with 35.5% of undecided voters predicting Yoon’s victory as opposed to Lee’s (22.7%).

In terms of the reasoning behind their support for certain candidates, 47.7% of respondents said they wanted to vote for the opposition party in order to confer judgment upon the current administration, while 37.5% of respondents said they wanted to vote for the ruling party for a stable government administration.

Again, results showed the scales tipping in favor of those wanting to pass judgment of the current administration, with the gap between the ratio of the “judgment” faction and the ratio of the “stable administration” faction — 46.5% and 42.0% respectively in the November survey — widening by 5.7 percentage points.

■ Survey Methodology

Survey period: Feb. 3 - 4, 2022

Survey method: Phone interview survey using virtual mobile phone numbers

Response rate: 19.0%

Weighting method: Cells weighted according to region, sex, and age distribution (based on the demographic distribution found in the resident registration data announced by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety on October 2021)

Sampling error: Plus or minus 3.1 percentage points with a confidence level of 95%

Polling agency: Kstat Research

Commissioning body: The Hankyoreh

By Kim Mi-na, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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