hankyoreh

Dongdaemun Election Commission staff inspect voting ballots on March 2 — one week out from the presidential election. (Kim Hye-yun/The Hankyoreh)

Starting Thursday, it is prohibited to share the results of opinion polls on next week’s presidential election in South Korea. Thursday marks the start of a roughly weeklong period until the end of voting on March 9, during which time the public will be in the dark about trends in voter opinion.

Meanwhile, a fierce battle continued Wednesday between Democratic Party nominee Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party nominee Yoon Suk-yeol.

According to Realmeter polling results announced by Newsis on Wednesday, Lee and Yoon had respective support ratings of 43.1% and 46.3%, putting them neck-and-neck within the margin of error.

Minor opposition People’s Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who withdrew from the race Thursday morning, pulled 6.7%, while minor progressive Justice Party candidate Sim Sang-jung drew 1.9%.

Results of a poll by Media Research shared by OBS the same day showed the two leading candidates with nearly identical support ratings: 45% for Lee and 44.9% for Yoon.

A Global Research poll commissioned by the JTBC network showed Lee trailing Yoon by 36.6% to 42.3% — a 5.7-percentage point deficit, but still within the margin of error. More details are available at the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

On the final day that polling results could be shared, the numbers all showed an exceptionally tight race.

With the election just six days away, the blackout period began on Thursday and will continue until 7:30 pm on March 9. Results from any polling conducted during that time cannot be announced or cited in reports.

But results from polls conducted before that period can be shared.

According to Gallup Korea’s poll results, all South Korean presidential elections held after 1987 were won by candidates leading the race in the last poll released before the blackout period. In 2012, when Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party butted heads with Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party, the Democratic United Party claimed that Moon overtook Park during the poll blackout, thereby achieving a “golden cross,” but in the end, it was Park who won the election.

For this year’s election, however, it’s hard to say who’s leading the race and who isn’t. Polling experts also say a definitive forecast is impossible.

Lee Kang-yun, director of the Korea Society Opinion Institute, commented, “In past presidential elections, the outcome was already decided at this point, and predictions were about by how many points the favorable candidate would win.” He continued, “This time, there are no guarantees. Expert opinions are diverging.”

Hankook Research chief analyst Jeong Han-wool also said, “Poll results have continuously come out within the margin of error, so it’s difficult to predict what will happen. It’s hard to say which candidate is leading the race.” He added, “For this year’s election, we’ll have to keep an eye out until two, three days before the election.”

Both the ruling Democratic Party and the opposition People Power Party seem cautious about forecasting the outcome of the presidential race at this point.

Woo Sang-ho, chief of the Democratic Party’s campaign committee, made an appearance on an MBC radio show and said, “I think it will be a tight race until the very day of the election. The match will be decided by a margin of 1% to 2%. The deciding factor will be how hard each camp rallies.”

Kwon Young-se, the campaign chief for the People Power Party, also said during a campaign committee meeting, “Even if you’re ahead of the pack for most of a marathon, if you can’t maintain your lead in the last 100 meters, you can’t win.”

He added, “We have to remember that we are racing to the finish line. Everything depends on this one remaining week.”

By Kim Ga-yoon, staff reporter

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