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A healthcare worker at Seoul Medical Center in the capital’s Jungnang District moves a gurney after transferring a patient into the hospital on March 15. (Yonhap News)

South Korea recorded a historic high of 429 deaths from COVID-19 on Wednesday, with the new daily caseload coming in above 600,000 for the first time ever.

The number of fatalities was up by 164 from the 265 recorded the day before. Disease control authorities warned that the number of deaths could continue to soar going forward amid the increase in confirmed cases.

Experts said that with a typical lag of about two to three weeks between positive deaths and patients developing critical systems or dying, South Korea needs to be prepared for a worst-case scenario.

On Thursday, Korea’s Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) announced that 429 new COVID-19 deaths had been counted as of the end of the day Wednesday.

At 264, the majority of deaths were among people aged 80 and older. Another 94 patients were in the 70s, while 43 were in their 60s and 19 were in their 50s. Seven deaths were also counted among patients in their 40s and two among patients in their 20s.

Patients at long-term care hospitals and senior care centers accounted for 148 of the deaths, or 34 percent.

The number of critical cases stood at 1,159 on Wednesday. The total was above 1,000 for a 10th straight day since March 8; a day earlier, it had reached a historic high of 1,244.

Wednesday was the first day since the pandemic began that South Korea recorded over 400 deaths. The CDCH explained that not all of the patients had died that day, adding that some fatalities had been belatedly reported.

Of the total announced Wednesday, 206 (48%) were patients who had died within the preceding three days, with another 190 who had died in the last week, 21 in the last two weeks, nine in the last three weeks, and three more than three weeks earlier.

“Hospitals are experiencing huge numbers of patients, and with such a heavy workload, [death] reports are inevitably being delayed,” explained Lee Sang-won, director of the CDCH epidemiological research and analysis team, in a briefing Thursday.

“The average number of deaths has not yet reached 429 — it’s lower than that,” he added.

Lee also warned, “This change [increase in confirmed cases] is going to continue, and there is a possibility the number of deaths will continue to rise.”

“The number of confirmed cases is increasing, and there’s also the factor of deaths increasing with the [higher] fatality rate when senior citizens become infected,” he said.

With a typical lag time of roughly two to three weeks between a rise in confirmed cases and a rise in critical cases and deaths, experts predicted the number of fatalities could end up far higher.

“Even if you factor in the inclusion of previously omitted reports on Wednesday, the number of deaths is still much higher,” said Jacob Lee, a professor of infectious disease at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital.

“The deaths reported today were a reflection of confirmed cases at the level of 200,000 two weeks earlier. The real increase in deaths [as the number of confirmed cases skyrockets] hasn’t even begun yet,” he warned.

Some have voiced concerns about a potential collapse of the healthcare system.

“Looking at the confirmed case numbers right now, we could see critical cases and deaths more than doubling in the near future,” said Paik Soon-young, an emeritus professor in the microbiology department at the Catholic University of Korea.

“There could also be an increase in patients who are unable to get in-patient care and end up dying while waiting for a bed,” he warned.

Jacob Lee said, “When the healthcare system starts to reach critical mass, the number of deaths skyrockets — and they’re on the brink right now.”

“The hospital beds that demand difficult treatment are nearly full right now, and we could end up with a situation where severe patients die without receiving active treatment,” he predicted.

By Jang Hyeon-eun, staff reporter

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