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A television at Seoul Station shows news reporting on an SLBM launch by North Korea on May 7, just three days before Yoon Suk-yeol takes office. (Yonhap News)

When Yoon Suk-yeol is sworn in as president of South Korea on Tuesday, he will face towering challenges in the areas of foreign policy and national security. As uncertainty continues in the world order over the war in Ukraine, North Korea has carried out yet another show of force by launching a ballistic missile from a submarine. In addition, South Korea and the US are scheduled to hold a summit on May 21.

Experts say that Yoon’s consistently hard line on foreign policy and national security will be put to the test as soon as he takes office.

North Korea shot what is thought to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile on Saturday, just three days before Yoon’s inauguration. That was the North’s 15th show of force this year.

The US State Department warned that the North is preparing to carry out a seventh nuclear weapons test at its nuclear testing ground in the village of Punggye, Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province. Analysts say that additional nuclear tests are essential for the North to move forward with its project of making its nuclear arsenal smaller, lighter, and more diverse.

If North Korea crosses the red line of testing another nuclear weapon, the Korean Peninsula is likely to become mired in tensions. While China and Russia have blocked discussion of additional sanctions resolutions against North Korea at the UN Security Council, the international mood could change following another nuclear test.

Considering that North Korea has previously responded to UN sanctions with shows of force, a nuclear test is likely to raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula for the time being regardless of how the international community responds.

If such actions by North Korea coincide with the Yoon administration’s plans to take robust military action in self-defense, launch high-power and ultra-precision strikes, and resume joint field exercises with the US, the Korean Peninsula could lurch toward a harsh confrontation on the heels of Yoon’s inauguration.

The South Korea-US summit on May 21 will be both the biggest challenge and the greatest test for the new administration. Depending on how the summit goes, the outcome could wreak havoc on and around the Korean Peninsula.

“Our discussion will focus on new developments in the Indo-Pacific regional order and on ways to strengthen our industrial supply chain,” said Park Jin, Yoon’s nominee for minister of foreign affairs, when asked about the agenda of the Korea-US summit during a hearing at the National Assembly on May 2.

Park’s remarks suggest that the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, which appears linked to a strategy of encircling China, will be a major item on the summit’s agenda. In short, the summit will include a matter that is repugnant to China.

The incoming administration’s promise to strengthen regular exercises with the US military and allow it to bring strategic assets onto the Korean Peninsula is another matter that could provoke China’s national security concerns. That’s also true of the question of Taiwan, which China regards as part of its internal affairs.

“The joint statement released in the Korea-US summit in May of last year mentioned ‘preserving peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,’ but the language that the Americans had initially requested was much stronger than that. If the incoming administration, given its pledge to ‘restore’ the Korea-US alliance, agrees to a joint statement without considering the sensitivity of the Taiwan question, it could damage Korea-China relations,” said a former official who worked on foreign policy and national security at the Blue House.

Furthermore, the US’ requests for Korea to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine and to strengthen trilateral security cooperation with Japan are tricky matters with major implications for Seoul’s relationship with Moscow and Tokyo. The incoming administration has promised to expand such trilateral security cooperation as a means of strengthening the alliance with the US. The Korean public is very sensitive about the question of military cooperation with Japan.

If Yoon allows joint military exercises with the US and Japan to take place in waters off the Korean Peninsula — an idea that Moon has rejected, citing a lack of public consensus — there’s likely to be not only pushback from Korea’s neighbors, including North Korea, China and Russia, but also a major backlash in domestic politics.

By Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

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