S. Koreans head to the polls for Wednesday’s elections: Who’s predicted to win where?

Posted on : 2022-05-31 16:56 KST Modified on : 2022-05-31 16:56 KST
Record turnout for early voting is likely to play a deciding role in some localities
Lee Jae-myung (left photo, center), the Democratic Party candidate for a National Assembly seat in Incheon’s Gyeyang District, stands with joint election committee leaders Yun Ho-jung and Park Ji-hyun on May 30. Lee Jun-seok (right photo, right), the leader of the People Power Party, stumps for Daejeon mayoral candidate Lee Jang-woo on May 30. (pool photos)
Lee Jae-myung (left photo, center), the Democratic Party candidate for a National Assembly seat in Incheon’s Gyeyang District, stands with joint election committee leaders Yun Ho-jung and Park Ji-hyun on May 30. Lee Jun-seok (right photo, right), the leader of the People Power Party, stumps for Daejeon mayoral candidate Lee Jang-woo on May 30. (pool photos)

With just one day to go until the local elections on Wednesday, the People Power Party (PPP) and the Democratic Party focused their final campaign efforts in Daejeon and Incheon, respectively, on Monday, the two parties devoting their attention to strategic locations that are projected to determine the outcome of the elections as a whole.

On Monday, the PPP’s leadership held an election committee meeting in Daejeon. Moreover, during a campaign event in the city, PPP leader Lee Jun-seok said, “President Yoon Suk-yeol considers the Chungcheong region to be his roots,” adding, “Please elect Daejeon mayor candidate Lee Jang-woo and [the PPP’s] district office mayor and local council member candidates.”

The PPP is aiming to sweep the Chungcheong region by winning elections in Daejeon.

On the other hand, the Democratic Party’s election committee leadership joined forces to campaign in Incheon. After butting heads over party reform, Yun Ho-jung and Park Ji-hyun, the standing chairs of the party’s election committee, came together with Lee Jae-myung, the head of the election committee, to announce the party’s letter of appeal to the public in front of the election office of Incheon’s Gyeyang District.

“There is no room for excuses. We will focus our attention on the public and the public alone and innovate until they are satisfied,” they said.

Only one day remains until the local elections, but the atmosphere within the two major political parties was quite different from that four years ago.

In the last local elections, the PPP won only two major elections — the Daegu mayoral election and the North Gyeongsang gubernatorial election. But this year, the party is predicting favorable results in 10 of the 17 major local elections: Seoul, Incheon, Gangwon, North Chungcheong, Daejeon, Daegu, North Gyeongsang, Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang. The party isn’t expecting any big wins in Gwangju, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, Sejong, and Jeju, and is expecting close matchups in Gyeonggi and South Chungcheong.

An official in the PPP’s election committee commented, “Among moderate white-collar workers between 35 and 55 years of age, the PPP had a strong negative image while the Democratic Party had the image of a trustworthy party, but that confidence is crumbling due to continued unfavorable events within the Democratic Party.”

Those within the PPP also believe Lee Jae-myung’s campaign promise to relocate Gimpo Airport will act as a last-minute variable that redounds to the PPP’s benefit.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has set a low bar for its campaign goals. At first, it said winning six to seven of the 17 major local elections would mean it put up a good defense, but recently the party has lowered this figure to five.

“Due to changes in several internal and external conditions, it’s realistically difficult to guarantee [a victory] in one location other than four locations [three Honam areas and Jeju],” Kim Min-seok, co-chair of the party’s general headquarters, said.

In other words, the party isn’t optimistic about its prospects in areas other than Honam and Jeju. It also believes that the match will be a close one in Gyeonggi, where it previously believed it had the upper hand.

Still, the Democratic Party is counting on Gangwon Province governor candidate Lee Kwang-jae, South Chungcheong Province governor candidate Yang Seung-jo, and Daejeon mayor candidate Heo Tae-jeong to rise to the challenge of their competitors in the eleventh hour by emphasizing their character. The party also anticipates the law designating Gangwon as a special self-governing province that passed at the National Assembly on Sunday to have a positive influence on the elections in the northeastern province.

Experts say the early voting rate will act as a significant variable in the local elections. The early voting rate for this year’s local elections is 20.62%, the highest the figure has ever been since early voting was introduced in 2013.

Still, considering the early voting rate for the recent presidential election (36.93%), voters are showing up to the polls for early voting at a significantly lower rate for these elections.

Park Sung-min, president of the political consultancy Min Consulting, said, “The Democratic Party is arguing that polls are undersampling its supporters because of their tendency to avoid answering public opinion surveys, but the early voting rate indicates that this argument is far from the truth.”

“Especially considering how women in their 20s and 30s do not seem motivated to come to the ballot box, it seems like the Democratic Party will struggle in areas where a close match is projected.”

By Lee Jae-hoon, staff reporter; Joh Yun-yeong, staff reporter; Kim Hae-jeong, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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