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A monitor at Seoul Station plays a news broadcast reporting that North Korea fired a ballistic missile of an unconfirmed model off its eastern coast on Feb. 20. (Yonhap)

Tensions are mounting on the Korean Peninsula after North Korea broke a period of silence with a show of force just ahead of large-scale South Korea-US joint military exercises scheduled for March, prompting South Korea and the US to respond with their own display.

The situation is now putting the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s crisis management capabilities to the test once again.

The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched by the North on Saturday and the “super-large” multiple rocket launcher rounds (short-range ballistic missiles/SRBMs) launched on Monday are respectively categorized as a strategic nuclear weapon and a tactical nuclear weapon. The former targeted the US, the latter South Korea.

The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said the aim of the ICBM launch was to show the capabilities for a devastating nuclear counterattack against hostile forces — while that of the super-large multiple rocket launcher fire was to demonstrate the ability to “reduce to ashes the enemy's operational airfield.”

In a statement Friday denouncing the South Korea-US joint military exercises, a spokesperson for the North Korean foreign ministry warned, “In case the U.S. and south Korea carry into practice their already-announced plan for military drills [. . .] they will face unprecedentedly persistent and strong counteractions.”

Pyongyang backed up this warning the day after the statement with its test launch of a Hwasong-15 ICBM.

South Korea and the US responded with joint aerial exercises on Sunday, which included the B-1B strategic bomber. On Monday, North Korea fired its super-large multiple rocket launchers, citing those exercises as a factor.

In a statement issued Monday, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Kim Jong-un and a high-ranking member of the ruling Workers’ Party, said, “We affirm once again that there is no change in our will to make the worst maniacs escalating the tensions pay the price for their action.”

Her message was interpreted as blaming the rise in tensions on the South Korea-US joint exercises, while signaling the North’s willingness to ratchet up its shows of force depending on the situation with those exercises — including a possible ICBM launch at a regular angle or submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launch.

The Yoon administration responded by reiterating its policy of matching might with might.

On Monday, the presidential office held a security situation review meeting presided over by Kim Sung-han, director of the National Security Office.

“The entire presidential office is watching the developments closely,” a key official in the presidential office said, adding that the “different agencies are taking appropriate measures.”

The same day, the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs designated five institutions — including the Songwon Shipping Company — and four individuals as targets of independent sanctions for contributing to the North’s nuclear weapon and missile development and evasion of sanctions.

The problem is that the Korean Peninsula now finds itself facing a typical security dilemma, where tensions continue rising in the absence of inter-Korean or North Korea-US dialogue.

It has turned into a vicious cycle, where shows of force by the North prompt a military response by South Korea and the US, which then draws another response from the North. It’s become an especially pronounced trend since the arrival of the Yoon administration, which has emphasized a message of “achieving peace through force.”

Seoul has shown no signs of any plans to change the scheduled joint exercises with the US.

At a National Security Council standing committee meeting on Saturday, the participants stressed that “peace on the Korean Peninsula is maintained through powerful force.” Plans were also announced to “strengthen response capabilities through the South Korea-US Deterrence Strategy Committee table-top exercise to take place at the Department of Defense offices in Washington on Feb. 22 and through the South Korea-US joint exercises and real maneuver drills [Freedom Shield] scheduled for mid-March.”

University of North Korean Studies professor Koo Kab-woo said, “The Korean Peninsula political situation has entered a downward spiral, and the tensions appear certain to increase at least through late March, when the joint exercises conclude.”

With the inter-Korean military agreement of September 2018 already halfway abandoned, observers stressed the importance of preventing any unintended clashes.

Kim Yeon-chul, a professor at Inje University and former minister of unification, stressed, “We urgently need crisis management to avoid random clashes not only in land border regions like the Demilitarized Zone but also in border regions in the West and East seas.”

By Jung In-hwan, staff reporter; Kim Mi-na, staff reporter

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