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President Joe Biden of the US stands for a photo with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan and President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea ahead of their trilateral summit in Hiroshima on May 21 on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit there. (Yonhap)

Ahead of the South Korea-US-Japan summit to be held at Camp David in the US on Friday, President Yoon Suk-yeol said South Korea is open to holding separate discussions with the two countries regarding extended deterrence. Reaffirming South Korea’s existing position, which is to leave open the possibility of Tokyo joining the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) between Seoul and Washington in the future, Yoon continued to stress the importance of strengthening security cooperation amongst South Korea, the US and Japan.

During a written interview with Bloomberg made public on Wednesday, Yoon was paraphrased as saying that he “expects the summit with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Joe Biden will lead to agreement on ways to enhance their capabilities to respond to the nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.”

Yoon also reaffirmed his hard-line stance against North Korea, stating, “The complete denuclearization of North Korea is a clear and consistent goal of the international community. [. . .] The international community will never accept North Korea as a nuclear power under any circumstances.” Additionally, he revealed that a system for sharing real-time warning information amongst South Korea, the US and Japan regarding North Korean missiles will be launched by the end of the year.

Some analysts floated the interpretation that Yoon is attempting to open up a path for Japan to join the South Korea-US NCG, which held its first meeting in July in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat. Under US extended deterrence, when an ally is attacked with nuclear weapons, the US retaliates or punishes the country that attacked its ally using strategic nuclear weapons as if it has been attacked itself. Currently, commitments of extended deterrence have been made between South Korea and the US as well as the US and Japan in the form of bilateral consultative groups.

However, the presidential office cut short speculation that Japan may join the South Korea-US NCG, stating, “The government is focusing on getting the [bilateral] NCG [between South Korea and the US] into order and deepening discussions.” It also shared, “Apart from the NCG, the fact that we are open discussions amongst South Korea, the US, and Japan regarding extended deterrence is our government’s basic position, which we have been clear about so far,” adding, “This matter is not being discussed amongst the three countries currently and is not on the agenda for the Camp David trilateral summit.”

Experts believe the chances of Japan participating in the NCG between South Korea and the US are low. Yang Ki-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University, commented, “In the case of the South Korea-US NCG, as it has barely kicked off yet, and as Japan also said it needs more time, Japan won’t be included any time soon,” projecting that Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo will “agree to strengthen trilateral military exercises and share military information” at the upcoming summit. Japan’s three non-nuclear principles of non-possession, non-production, and non-introduction of nuclear weapons remain valid as well.

Nevertheless, restructuring the extended deterrence system to encompass all three countries will likely be pursued as the presidential office has continuously shared. Chung-Ang University political science and international relations professor Lee Hea-jeong explained that “although Yoon didn’t say [South Korea, the US, and Japan] will institutionally combine their extended deterrence system, he demonstrated his determination to consolidate them in the future [in his interview].”

In the interview, Yoon also revealed his plan to bolster economic cooperation with the US and Japan in regard to economic security, considered a major topic of discussion at the upcoming trilateral summit. Remarking that South Korea, the US, and Japan plan to “further solidify the framework for our cooperation to strengthen the resilience of supply chains,” Yoon explained the three countries “will conduct joint research and enhance cooperation in AI, quantum, space and other key critical and emerging technologies, which will become future growth engines, and we will work together to set global standards.”

Notably, regarding global supply chain issues in high-tech industries, Yoon stated that the three countries plan to discuss specific ways to boost cooperation, such as information sharing on the subject of supply chains and establishing early warning systems.

The US repeatedly reiterated it will institutionalize intimate cooperation amongst South Korea, the US and Japan as well, such as by regularly holding summits. During a briefing on Tuesday, US State Secretary Antony Blinken remarked, “I think what you can expect to see coming out of this summit is a collaboration on a trilateral basis that is further institutionalized in a variety of ways,” calling South Korea and Japan “core allies — not just in the region, but around the world.”

Yoon will be heading to the US on Thursday afternoon for the summit, where the “Camp David principles,” including the establishment of a three-way hotline amongst the three countries and the regularization of high-ranking meetings, will likely be announced.

By Bae Ji-hyun, staff reporter; Shin Hyeong-cheol, staff reporter

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