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Park Kwang-on, the floor leader of the Democratic Party, visits party leader Lee Jae-myung in the hospital on Sept. 21. (pool photo)

Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung’s leadership has suffered a fatal blow following the passage of a motion consenting to his arrest at a regular session of the National Assembly on Thursday.

The fact that a significant number of Democratic Party lawmakers strayed from their leader’s direct request to vote down the motion, which was made the previous day from his hospital bed as Lee, who had been on a hunger strike since Aug. 31, emphasized the injustice of prosecutors’ inquiry into him, is prompting discussions about a possible split within the leading opposition party.

Observers within political circles and beyond predict that Lee’s political fate will come down to whether the court issues an arrest warrant for him.

Questioning by the court is the first hurdle Lee faces. From his perspective, the issuance of an arrest warrant would constitute the worst-case scenario, as that would put Lee’s political career on the brink of collapse, and he would have to face the disgrace of being the first opposition leader to be arrested in the history of South Korea’s constitutional government.

As this would also amount to the court’s acknowledgment of the allegations against him, Lee may also face fierce criticism for going on a hunger strike and asking fellow lawmakers to vote down the motion consenting to his arrest out of fear of being taken into custody. Demands for him to step down as leader of the Democratic Party will grow as well.

If Lee is arrested, the future of the Democratic Party will also become uncertain. Pro-Lee lawmakers believe the Democratic Party may be driven to splinter due to backlash from supporters who may attribute Lee’s arrest to his party’s abandonment of him.

On the other hand, lawmakers who do not belong to Lee’s faction believe that once Lee is arrested, the Democratic Party will be able to reform itself by finding new leadership, having shirked off Lee and his judicial liabilities. Some point out that the 40 or so Democratic Party lawmakers who contributed to the passage of the motion consenting to Lee’s arrest will not be afraid of splitting off from their current party now that they’ve become aware of their formidable number.

On the flip side, if prosecutors’ arrest warrant for Lee is dismissed, it appears possible that Lee will not only recover his political leadership but also may be given an opportunity to fight back.

A prominent lawmaker projected that Lee will “reach new heights” if the arrest warrant for him is dismissed, as that would provide him with the perfect environment to fight back against prosecutors and purge lawmakers within his party indisposed to his leadership who thrust him toward a warrant review. In such a case, with pro-Lee lawmakers and his supporters on his side, Lee may lead extensive nomination reform efforts against those who joined forces with the “dictatorship by prosecutors” while trying to seat pro-Lee figures in vacant floor positions.

But others believe the blow Lee incurred from the passage of the motion consenting to his arrest is too significant for Lee to recover his leadership even if the request for an arrest warrant is dismissed. They point out that Lee’s qualification as leader has been called into question due to him breaking his promise to waive his immunity from arrest and pushing Democratic Party lawmakers to vote down the motion.

“Fundamentally, the passage of the motion consenting to Lee’s arrest is the result of discontent that accumulated among Democratic Party lawmakers who believed he was trying to save himself while placing the party under fire,” a party official commented, noting that the motion passed “not because lawmakers disliked Lee” but “as an expression of doubt concerning Lee’s leadership itself.”

Another influential lawmaker remarked, “Depending on the polls and the outcome of the by-election for Gangseo District mayor in October, the view that the leadership should be replaced and a ‘third leadership’ should be set up may erupt.”

By Lim Jae-woo, staff reporter

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