hankyoreh

Lee Jong-seok, a former minister of unification. (Lee Je-hun/Hankyoreh)

After spending the final days of August surveying the 1,334-kilometer (823-mile) North Korea-China border, former Unification Minister Lee Jong-seok offered his assessment to the Hankyoreh. 

“This is the third major flood disaster we’ve seen since Kim Jong-un took power in 2012. Yet it looks like state resources are being more systematically allocated to restoration efforts than before. Redevelopment projects in major cities and agricultural villages along the North Korea-China border are proceeding without interruption,” he said. 

Lee also visited the North Korea-China border region in September 2023, so his assessment is based on the changes he perceives to have happened in the past 11 months. 

“Increases in the amount of goods moving through cities like Sinuiju and Hyesan show that trade between North Korea and China is becoming more active,” Lee said.

Lee said he had observed restoration efforts in areas damaged by floods and the construction of agricultural residences all along the border region.

“As such projects require a significant amount of resources, I think that the North Korean authorities have upgraded their disaster management capacity and administrative capability,” he assessed. 

The claims of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and other politicians that the North Korean regime is on the verge of collapse are “laughable,” he added.   

Exempting the time he was in public office, Lee has visited the North Korea-China border region once or twice a year since 1996. He is a pioneer when it comes to surveys of the North Korea-China border, living proof of the various changes that the region has undergone. Since the cessation of inter-Korean exchange in December 2018 and the bar on civilian travel to the North, comparative time series analyses are effectively the only remaining method for studying the situation in North Korea.  

“Clinging to the possibility of North Korea’s collapse is to torture yourself with a futile hope,” Lee added.

“The [Yoon] administration’s North Korea policy is based on the subjective belief that the regime can be weakened to the point of collapse. That belief has not come to fruition for decades. Moreover, North Korea has restored its military alliance with Russia, and while North Korea-China relations remain a delicate matter, there is a chance of expansion in that regard. North Korea currently has the biggest strategic and diplomatic advantage in the 30 or so odd years since the end of the Cold War.” 

There’s a framed piece of calligraphy in Lee’s home, gifted to him by his father-in-law. It contains four Chinese characters that roughly translate into “empiricism,” or “deriving the truth from facts.” Lee has lived by this motto, be it as a researcher or a public official. He does not draw conclusions without the facts. 

Lee’s statement about claims about North Korea’s collapse “laughable” are based on the facts he’s gathered from his extensive experience in the North Korea-China border region. 

After visiting the border region for the first time in 11 months, Lee inspected the three situations: restoration projects in flood-damaged regions along the Amnok (or Yalu) River; the scope and speed of the construction and improvement of urban facilities and agricultural residences; and the direction of North Korea-China trade and exchange.

Regarding the Kim Jong-un regime, Lee said, “Compared to last year, it felt like state leadership and development were back in order, and it was difficult to spot any signs of instability.” 

Lee’s prognosis is that while development isn’t quick, it’s on the up-and-up. 

“The upper Amnok River region in Ryanggang Province is traditionally a backwater in North Korea. I got to observe one of five redevelopment projects for farming villages in the region last year. This year I observed three of them,” Lee said.

“Within three or four years, it’s likely that these regions will be completely different places.”

By Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer

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