hankyoreh

Hankyoreh public opinion polls on next presidential election

A poll by the Hankyoreh and Research Plus has reconfirmed the results of surveys on preferences for possible presidential candidates, conducted by more than ten newspapers and broadcast media earlier this year, which showed Moon Jae-in, former leader of the opposition Minjoo Party, in the lead. The Hankyoreh-Research Plus survey, conducted on Feb. 3 and 4, gave Moon 30.2% of those polled, which is a 2.8% increase over the 27.4% he received in the Hankyoreh‘s Dec. 28-29 survey.

The poll also looked at hypothetical four-way, three-way, and two-way races and showed that Moon’s support grows higher when there are fewer competing candidates. In a four-way race with among Moon Jae-in, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Yoo Seong-min, support for Moon reached 43.8%, far above Prime Minister and acting president Hwand Kyo-ahn’s 18.3%. In a three-way race (Moon Jae-in, Ahn Cheol-soo, and a single conservative candidate), Moon’s support was in the high 40% range. In a two-way race with Ahn Cheol-soo, former leader of the People‘s Party, Moon garnered 50.3% compared to Ahn’s 30.2%.

The rising trend of support for Moon’s candidacy comes in the wake of stronger hopes for a change in government, and backing for him appears to be fairly evenly distributed over regional and age differences. Hwang was in first place only in the conservative Daegu/North Gyeongsang Province region, with 23.7%, and Moon was the top choice among all age groups except those over 60. It is noteworthy that Moon’s support was highest (37.6%) even in the Chungcheong Province area, where Ban Ki-moon was expected to be most popular, and also in the liberal southwast Honam area (34.4%). Among those who responded that they were certain to vote in the next presidential election, the highest percentage (34.9%) said they would vote for Moon.

The degree of loyalty to Moon among his supporters was also very high, with 70.1% saying that they would not switch candidates. The other candidates averaged 65.4% of affirmative responses to this question. After former UN Secretary-General Ban announced that he would not run, his supporters backed Hwang, giving Hwang an 80% loyalty rating and putting Moon in second place in this category.

Moon could also absorb many votes from potential candidates who decide not to run. To the question “If the candidate you support drops out of the race, who would you vote for?” 39% of supporters of South Chungcheong Province Governor Ahn Hee-jung and 37.7% of those backing Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung named Moon as their second choice.

To the question “Regardless of whom you support, who do you think would do the best job of running the government?” 26.6% of respondents chose Moon, which is almost half again as many as those who named Governor Ahn (14.7%) or Acting President Hwang (13.6%). However, it is noteworthy that, unlike the other potential candidates, who received almost equal ratings for their perceived ability to run the government as for their support in an election, Moon’s percentage on this question was 3.6% lower than the percentage who said they would vote for him. This seems to show that the trend to back a Moon Jae-in candidacy is founded more on the question of who would provide the most suitable change in governance than on who is most prepared to be president, which is the strategy that Moon’s team wishes to emphasize.

By Lee Jung-ae, staff reporter

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