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Support ratings for presidential candidates

The shift to a two-way race is the result of Moon’s support stagnating after he could not gain a “convention effect” from the primaries and of Ahn rapidly closing the gap with Moon as he picks up support from conservative voters. The main reason for Moon’s stalling support appears to be his failure to effectively absorb voters who preferred South Chungcheong Province Governor Ahn Hee-jung and Seongnam Mayor Lee Jae-myung during the Minjoo Party primary. This is reflected by a poll by the Seoul Shinmun newspaper and YTN showing that in a race with candidates from the five parties, Moon only gained 25.8% of former supporters of Ahn Hee-jung and 51.4% of former supporters of Lee Jae-myung.

At the same time, the voters who supported Ahn Hee-jung and Lee Jae-myung in the Minjoo Party primary have flocked to Ahn. In fact, the poll by the Seoul Shinmun and YTN found that 51.5% of Ahn Hee-jung’s supporters and 30.2% of Lee Jae-myung’s supporters had shifted their support to Ahn. The fact that conservative voters with nowhere to go had turned to Ahn Hee-jung was another decisive factor. Voters opposed to Moon had hopped from Ban Ki-moon to acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn and then to Ahn Hee-jung, and now that all of those candidates have been knocked out of the race, they have finally congregated on Ahn Cheol-soo. Another factor here was the unexpected turnout in the People’s Party primaries, which were mostly held in public.

Experts believe that Moon has an advantage over Ahn in terms of the strength of his support base. The political leanings of Moon’s supporters are relatively similar, while Ahn’s supporters include a complicated blend of ideologies. In most polls, Moon is supported by 50-60% of progressives, 30% of moderates and over 20% of conservatives. In contrast, polls show that Ahn has the support of 20% of progressives, 30% of moderates and 40% of conservatives. When an opposition candidate has overwhelming support from progressives, it can be inferred that their supporters are very loyal. In contrast, a high level of support from moderates and conservatives suggests that the candidate has broad appeal, but is limited by weak support. This is also the reason that Moon’s campaign regards Ahn’s support rating as a “bubble.”

“After a certain amount of time has passed, there will a period of correction. Soon, Minjoo Party supporters whose feelings were hurt in the primaries will come back to the fold because of the greater goal of bringing their party to power, and conservative voters will start to come to the logical conclusion that they should vote for the candidate from the party they’ve always supported. When that happens, Ahn’s support rating will face that period of adjustment,” said Minjoo Party floor leader Woo Sang-ho during a meeting on Apr. 6.

People’s Party leader Park Jie-won acknowledged that Ahn’s support base is not firm but said, “The main reason is that people are intimidated by the narrative of Moon Jae-in’s victory and by the number of seats [40] held by the People’s Party. But [Moon’s] victory narrative has already been proven to be a fantasy, and there’s ample precedent of parties with a small number of lawmakers coming to power. Ahn’s approval rating won’t sink as time goes by.”

Experts are also divided in their analysis. “Ahn may look like he has plenty of room to maneuver, but there are a lot of problems up ahead. Once the debate begins about his identity and once Moon Jae-in and [conservative candidate] Hong Joon-pyo launch a simultaneous attack, it won’t be easy for Ahn to effectively hold together his motley crew of supporters, including Honam [Gwangju/Jeolla Province] and conservative voters,” said Lee Sang-il, president of the Agenda Center.

But Yun Hee-woong, director of the Public Opinion Analysis Center for Opinion Live, sees things differently. “For the conservatives to desert Ahn, they need to have a more attractive option, and at the moment it doesn’t seem likely that either Hong Joon-pyo or Yoo Seong-min will serve as that option. [Ahn’s] approval rating isn’t likely to fade,” Yun said.

Another variable is the motivation of these candidates’ supporters. For support in opinion polls to actually translate into turnout at the ballot box, it’s important for supporters to feel a sense of certainty and urgency. In most opinion polls, Moon has about a 20 point lead over Ahn among those who actively intend to vote. That says something about the intensity of the passion and loyalty of Moon’s supporters.

“It depends on how much conservatives maintain their desire to counter Moon Jae-in and how well Ahn Cheol-soo can persuade them that he’s a viable alternative to Moon,” said Yun Hee-woong.

“The key is how tightly Ahn can hold on to his current support,” said Lee Sang-il. If Ahn can keep the race close until shortly before election day, he can bring “shy conservatives” who are indifferent to him but opposed to Moon Jae-in to the ballot box, but if his approval rating gives way, conservatives could give their votes to the current conservative candidates or not vote at all, Lee said.

By Lee Se-young and Song Kyung-hwa, staff reporters