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The KCNA reported on March 11 that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in the country’s northwest, seen here, which is capable of launching ICBMs. (KCNA/Yonhap News)

On the morning of March 11, South Korea and the US announced their conclusion that ballistic missiles launched by North Korea on Feb. 27 and March 5 were linked to the new intercontinental ballistic missile called Hwasong-17 that North Korea unveiled during a military parade on the 75th anniversary of the establishment of the Workers’ Party of Korea on Oct. 10, 2020. South Korea and the US said that while the missiles didn’t fly as far as an ICBM in those two test launches, Pyongyang had disguised the ICBM as a space launch vehicle to test some of its components as it prepares to launch the ICBM at its maximum range.

North Korea claimed that the two recent test launches were important steps toward developing a reconnaissance satellite, but South Korea and the US believe they were ICBM performance tests, which would bring Pyongyang very close to scrapping the moratorium on nuclear weapon and ICBM tests that it announced in April 2018.

South Korea’s transition to a new administration and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are already creating uncertainty both at home and abroad. Some fear that adding the North Korean nuclear weapon and missile issue to the mix could lead to another nasty standoff on the Korean Peninsula.

“We believe that the airframe of the ballistic missile in North Korea’s last two launches is the same as the one it unveiled in 2020,” said a source in the South Korean military.

The South Korean military had initially assessed the ballistic missiles as being medium-range given their altitude and range. But after South Korean and American analysts looked more closely at additional data acquired from various sources, they concluded that North Korea had used the airframe of the Hwasong-17 and adjusted its flight trajectory in the test launch.

A senior official from the US said in a press briefing that the airframe used in the two test launches was capable of carrying an ICBM.

There are also troubling movements in North Korea. The state-run Rodong Sinmun reported in a front-page story on Sunday that leader Kim Jong-un had carried out on-the-spot guidance at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and given orders for the site to be repaired and expanded that day following on-the-spot guidance at the National Aerospace Development Administration on Saturday.

The Sohae Satellite Launching Station, located in Cholsan County, North Pyongan Province, is one of the sites that Kim provisionally closed as a preemptive confidence-building measure with the US. The launching station is often referred to as a missile launch site in South Korea and the US.

Kim’s visit to the National Aerospace Development Administration and his orders for the repair and expansion of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, a key facility for launching long-range rockets, mean the North is moving rapidly toward ending the moratorium on nuclear weapon and missile tests that it declared in April 2018.

There are also indications that the North means to restore the nuclear test site in Punggye, a village in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, which it partially demolished leading up to Kim’s summit with Donald Trump in 2018. These movements appear aimed to grab the attention of the US, which has been focused on the war in Ukraine, and to gain an edge in negotiations with the US.

The Hwasong-17, North Korea’s latest ICBM, has a maximum range of at least 13,000 kilometers, which means it could strike anywhere in the continental US. South Korea and the US took the unusual step on Sunday of releasing the detailed analysis of the North Korean missile as they called on the North to halt its provocations and return to dialogue.

When South Korean and American officials were asked in the press briefing Sunday why they had released a detailed analysis of the missile, they mentioned their firm belief that the international community needs to be unified in its opposition to additional weapons development by the North.

This constituted a public warning to Pyongyang as it moves ever closer to resuming nuclear weapon tests and ICBM test launches, which the US has declared to be a “red line.”

If there’s another eruption of the North Korean nuclear and missile issue, the US will have to deal with that alongside the war in Ukraine, placing a greater burden on American crisis management. While the US has threatened to impose additional sanctions on the North, there is little chance that the UN Security Council would issue sanctions as it has in the past. That would require the agreement of UNSC permanent members China and Russia, which are both at odds with the US.

Since North Korea hasn’t made any response to the offer for “unconditional dialogue” that the US has repeated for over a year, some say it’s time for the US to start thinking of ways to bring Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.

North Korea has often carried out major shows of force around presidential elections and the beginning of new administrations in South Korea in order to ascertain the regime’s attitude and to improve its bargaining power vis-à-vis the South. Pyongyang launched an ICBM one week before the presidential election in December 2012 and carried out its third nuclear test shortly before Park Geun-hye became president in February 2013. It also tested an ICBM on July 11, 2017, soon after Moon Jae-in was inaugurated as president.

There are concerns that major shows of force by North Korea before Yoon Suk-yeol’s inauguration as South Korean president, in combination with Yoon’s promised hardline stance toward the North, could lead to an inter-Korean standoff at the outset of his administration.

Experts are calling on North Korea to halt military action to restore stability to the Korean Peninsula.

“Given the likelihood of a sudden chill on the Korean Peninsula early in his term, Yoon Suk-yeol will be faced with the challenge of managing and calming the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The new administration must not repeat the mistakes of Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, who failed to manage our relationships with North Korea and China,” said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute.

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter; Lee Je-hun, senior staff writer; Lee Bon-young, Washington correspondent

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