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Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to officials including North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a reception following talks in Vladivostok, Russia, on April 25, 2019. (AFP/Yonhap)

Amid projections that a summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to take place during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok that kicked off on Sunday and runs through Wednesday, experts are estimating that the meeting’s main agenda may include potential arms deals and joint military exercises, as well as energy and food.

Whether an arms deal will be struck between North Korea and Russia, and other matters of cooperation on technology, is garnering the most interest. The New York Times, which first reported the possibility of a North Korea-Russia summit, predicted on Sept. 4 that Pyongyang may demand technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines from Moscow in return for providing artillery shells.

Due to its prolonged war in Ukraine, Russia is in short supply of artillery shells. Hence, the New York Times estimated, it is highly likely that North Korea will ask for technology related to the atmospheric reentry of intercontinental ballistic missiles, reconnaissance satellites and nuclear-powered submarines from Russia in return for supplying artillery shells.

This past July, Kim Jong-un toured a weapons exhibition with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was visiting Pyongyang at the time to attend North Korea’s “Victory Day” celebration marking the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

While North Korea announced via the Rodong Sinmun on Friday that it built and launched its very first “tactical nuclear attack submarine,” the South Korean Defense Ministry has cast doubt on this claim. Moreover, North Korea’s second attempt to launch a spy satellite in August resulted in failure.

While an arms deal between North Korea and Russia would violate UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, sanctions against the two countries will be all but impossible to impose even if the deal occurs, as Russia is a permanent member of the UNSC.

President Yoon Suk-yeol railed against the possibility of North Korea and Russia trading weapons. While attending an ASEAN Plus Three summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Wednesday, Yoon said that an arms deal between Moscow and Pyongyang would “fly in the face of the duty of sanctions against North Korea stipulated by the UNSC.”

The US also urged Pyongyang and Moscow to cease their discussion of trading in arms through a statement by Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday.

Some say it is unlikely that Russia will hand over advanced technology, equipment and parts concerning nuclear weapons and missiles to North Korea. In a report released on Friday focusing on cooperation between North Korea and Russia following the war in Ukraine, the Institute for National Security Strategy wrote, “As Russia designates the maintenance and expansion of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty regime as its core national interest, the likelihood of the country directly supporting North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles program in the short term is insignificant.”

Others believe Pyongyang and Moscow will carry out detailed and extensive discussions on not only an arms deal but also joint military exercises, as well as food and energy supply issues.

University of North Korean Studies professor Kim Dong-yub commented, “If a summit between the two countries occurs, North Korea may provide conventional weapons like ammunition and shells to Russia. But Russia may be reluctant to transfer cutting-edge technology related to military science.”

He continued, “The provision of technology for fighter planes — which North Korea requires — as well as food and energy supplies may be discussed. Furthermore, if talks continue on, joint military drills among North Korea, China and Russia may take place.”

Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un’s next move is drawing interest.

After the breakdown of the second North Korea-US summit between Kim Jong-un and then-US President Donald Trump in Hanoi in February 2019, Pyongyang announced it would be partaking in a North Korea-Russia summit scheduled for the following April only after Kim Jong-un departed for Vladivostok — the site of the summit — by train early in the morning. In light of this precedent, North Korea is likely to officially confirm or announce its summit with Russia just before the event takes place.

In the meantime, during an interview with Voice of America on Saturday, John Everard, the former British ambassador to North Korea remarked, “Kim Jong-un is obsessed with his own security, and now that the story is out, I suspect there will be hesitations about the summit.”

Some experts are advising the South Korean government to take proactive diplomatic efforts toward Russia.

“Putin previously warned South Korea not to provide military assistance to Ukraine. A [North Korea-Russia] summit wouldn’t be anything to be surprised of,” remarked Park Byung-hwan, the director of the Eurasia Strategy Research Institute who previously served as a diplomat in Russia.

“The more the confrontation between South Korea, the US and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other deepen, the bigger the chances of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula will become, but it is questionable whether the government has a Russia policy in preparation for such a possibility,” he added.

By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporter; Jang Ye-ji, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]