hankyoreh

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin after traveling to Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East for a summit on April 25, 2019. (Yonhap)

Nearly four and a half years since his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok in April 2019, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is headed to the Far Eastern city once again on his private train for a second summit with the Russian leader.

North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency and Russia’s Kremlin simultaneously announced on Monday night that Kim and Putin will be meeting soon in Russia to hold a summit.

This is the first official confirmation of the upcoming meeting between the leaders of North Korea and Russia following the Sept. 4 report from the New York Times regarding the two countries’ plan for a summit citing US officials, as well as domestic and foreign news reports on Monday concerning Kim’s departure to Russia that day on his private train.

On Monday night, a South Korean government official shared that Kim’s private train departed Pyongyang Sunday afternoon and has been slowly making its way toward North Korea’s northeastern border.

Kim chose the same method and route of transportation he opted for four years and five months ago when he visited Russia. On April 24, 2019, Kim left Pyongyang early in the morning via train and disembarked in Khasan, a town on the border of North Korea and Russia, at 10:40 am for a welcome event before boarding his train again and arriving in Vladivostok around 6 pm in the afternoon — the 1,100-kilometer trip from Pyongyang to Vladivostok taking a full day.

This time, the journey is likely to take longer. Kim’s private train, which departed Pyongyang Sunday afternoon, is expected to pass through the border town of Khasan, Primorsky Krai, before arriving in Vladivostok on Tuesday.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly took photos with participants in a military parade to mark the 75th founding anniversary of North Korea on Sept. 10, according to a KCNA report on Sept. 11. (KCNA/Yonhap)

The Japanese commercial television networks Japan News Network and Fuji News Network reported on Monday that workers at Khasan station were seen applying a fresh coat of green paint on facilities in preparation for the arrival of visitors. The day before, individuals wearing North Korean badges estimated to be part of an inspection team reportedly toured the Khasan rail station as well.

Amid projections that Kim and Putin will be meeting as early as Tuesday or on Wednesday immediately following the conclusion of the Eastern Economic Forum, Northeast Asia once again finds itself on the brink of crisis. Experts assessed that the confrontation between South Korea, the US and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other will intensify as a result of the upcoming North Korea-Russia summit.

In particular, they predicted that this summit may well act as a watershed moment in Russia’s strategy for the Korean Peninsula, which has long been to maintain equidistant diplomacy between the two Koreas.

Unlike during their first meeting in 2019, Kim and Putin will be coming face to face at a time when their isolation on the international stage has become even more marked. Moscow and Pyongyang are both currently targets of UN sanctions, the former due to its war in Ukraine, and the latter due to its continued shows of force, including intercontinental ballistic missile launches.

As South Korea, the US and Japan applied pressure on North Korea and Russia by making a show of their solidarity at the level of a quasi-military alliance, paradoxically drove North Korea and Russia to grow closer to each other.

Specifically, bogged down by its prolonged war in Ukraine and encircled by sanctions and censure from the West, Russia is in dire need of securing an ally by bolstering its ties with North Korea, from which it can obtain weapons such as artillery shells.

However, experts are divided on whether Pyongyang and Moscow will seal the deal on any arms transactions at the upcoming summit.

“The chances of North Korea selling weapons to Russia in return for receiving food and energy supplies are high,” former South Korean ambassador to Russia Wi Sung-lac told the Hankyoreh. “Nevertheless, as that would violate UN sanctions, [North Korea and Russia] will make a secret deal for their benefit.”

On the other hand, Jeh Sung-hoon, a professor of Russian studies at Hankook University of Foreign Studies, commented, “The likelihood of Russia ignoring UN Security Council sanctions and risking an arms deal with North Korea seems low,” adding, “Instead, economic issues will likely be discussed.”

Increasingly cozy ties between North Korea and Russia have increased the strategic importance of China. As such, many have begun to speculate about whether a South Korea-China summit and a South Korea-China-Japan summit are in the cards.

During an interview with cable news network Channel A on Monday, national security advisor Cho Tae-yong remarked that South Korea will “try to arrange” a visit by Xi Jinping to South Korea “by solving this issue diplomatically.”

“Though it may not happen before the end of the year, you could say it’s on the horizon,” Cho went on, adding that a trilateral summit would likely precede a visit by Xi to South Korea.

By Shin Hyeong-cheol, staff reporter

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