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A person walks by a television screen in Tokyo, Japan, broadcasting news about the latest missile launches by North Korea on Dec. 17-18. (AFP/Yonhap)

As South Korea and the US bolster their response to the North Korean nuclear threat, Pyongyang is countering by becoming ever more belligerent. If South Korea and the US’ attempts at deterrence remain ineffective, as at present, there are fears that a fatal error by one side or the other might plunge the Korean Peninsula into an irrecoverable catastrophe.

After South Korea and the US announced they would take the unprecedented step of including a “nuclear operations scenario” in upcoming joint military exercises — an announcement made in a meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group in Washington on Friday — North Korea took a bold provocation calculated to terrify South Korea, the US and Japan.

After launching a short-range ballistic missile that traveled 570 km from the vicinity of Pyongyang to the East Sea on Sunday evening, North Korea shot off what was presumably an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Monday morning.

“This missile was in the air for 73 minutes and is estimated to have reached a maximum height of over 6,000 km. That could give it a range of over 15,000 km, which would bring the entire US within its range,” said Japan’s parliamentary vice minister of defense, Shingo Miyake, in a press conference held afterward.

After South Korea and the US declared they would cooperate more closely on the threat posed by North Korean nuclear weapons, North Korea first challenged South Korea with a short-range missile on Sunday evening and then, 10 hours later, on Monday morning, sent a message across the Pacific Ocean to the US, effectively asking whether Americans would really sacrifice Washington or New York to defend Seoul.

In a statement on Monday evening, North Korea expressed its strategic intentions with relative candor.

A spokesperson for North Korea’s Ministry of National Defense described the South Korean and American plan as “an open declaration on nuclear confrontation to make the use of nuclear weapons against [North Korea] a fait accompli in case of emergency and examine the operational procedures for its implementation in an atmosphere of real war.”

“Any attempt [by hostile forces] to use armed forces against [North Korea] will face a preemptive and deadly counteraction,” the spokesperson vowed in the statement.

Specifically, North Korea has taken issue with the Washington Declaration adopted by the US and South Korea this past April in which they vowed to “further enhance the regular visibility of strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula.” The US carried through on this promise when the nuclear-powered submarine USS Missouri (SSN-780) docked at Busan on Sunday. In response, North Korea declared that this “critical situation pressurizes our armed forces to opt for a more offensive countermeasure.”

South Korea continues to see the deployment of US strategic assets throughout the country, as evidenced by US nuclear submarines docking at Busan in July and December of this year, US strategic bombers landing in Korea this past October, and South Korea’s participation in a test launch of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) this past November. In this latest statement, North Korea has made it clear that it intends to respond in kind to such movements.

North Korea’s defensive posture in response to the deployment of US strategic assets did a complete 180 in September 2022, when it officially left open the possibility of the use of preemptive nuclear strike in its constitutional amendment on the use of nuclear force. Shortly afterward, the USS Ronald Reagan, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, arrived in Busan on Sept. 23 for joint naval exercises. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, North Korea conducted four ballistic missile launches. On Oct. 4, North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) for the first time in eight months.

The USS Kentucky (SSBN-737), a ballistic missile submarine, arrived in Busan this past July, making its first port call in 42 years. In the early hours of July 19, the very next day, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles from the Sunan area of Pyongyang into the East Sea. The missiles traveled 550 km, the exact distance between Sunan and Busan, before falling into the ocean. It was a blatant message: We can attack the US submarine.

The more the US and South Korea magnify their joint exercises and military cooperation in response to the North Korean threat, the more aggressive North Korea becomes, thereby further endangering all Koreans, both North and South. The Korean Peninsula is ensnared in a classic security dilemma: one side bolsters its arms and defensive capabilities to enhance its own security, which triggers the other side to do the same, resulting in a never-ending spiral of hostility that exposes both sides to more danger.

With North Korea-US dialogue and inter-Korean communication channels shut off, there is no clear exit from the current crisis.

By Gil Yun-hyung, staff reporter

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