OPLAN 5029 risks ceding South Korean sovereignty to the U.S.

Posted on : 2009-11-02 12:09 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Analysts say China’s reaction will be unfavorable to South Korea, U.S. 5029 operational plans for intervention in case of possible upheaval in North Korea
 2009 shows the North Korean leader
2009 shows the North Korean leader

Since the Lee Myung-bak administration has taken office, South Korea and the U.S. have reportedly been engaging in discussions to flesh out OPLAN 5029, the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC) operational plan to prepare for a “sudden change” in North Korea. Discussions over the plan had previously been halted in 2005 during the Roh Moo-hyun administration, when South Korea objected that it presented the potential for infringement upon its sovereignty. The “sudden change” the plan refers to is extreme chaos in North Korea resulting from factors such as a regime collapse.

No clear solution has been found on the sovereignty dispute over who would lead a potential intervention, however, authorities from the two countries’ militaries are known to have pursued discussions on operational plans for various North Korean upheaval scenarios in earnest after rumors of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s ill health leaked in Sept. 2008.

In a speech at a year-end party of the Korea Retired Generals and Admirals Association in Dec. 2008, General Walter Sharp, U.S. Forces Korea Commander, announced that response plans to an upheaval in North Korea related to Kim Jong-il’s health had been prepared. General Sharp said at the time that the South Korean and U.S. militaries had made thorough preparations not only for an all-out war against North Korea, but also for scenarios such as instability in the country or a regime change.

A South Korean military official said Sunday, “South Korea’s military has made full preparations for a sudden change in North Korea, and we are cooperating closely with the U.S. in this matter.” It is a known fact that South Korean and U.S. military authorities have been steadily making efforts since last year to transition 5029 from a “conceptual plan” (CONPLAN) into an “operational plan” (OPLAN). While a conceptual plan is characterized by somewhat abstract content about what general course of action would be taken by South Korea and the U.S. in the event of a particular situation taking place in North Korea, an operational plan includes specific plans for the use of military forces, including the mobilization and positioning of troops at the battalion level and higher.

While South Korea has cautiously responded that it is adhering to CONPLAN 5029 whenever a dispute over OPLAN 5029 surfaces, the U.S. has repeatedly announced that it is preparing concrete plans for possible upheaval scenarios in North Korea.

In a speech given at the invitation of the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in April 2009, Sharp said that contingency plans were being prepared for instability in North Korea. He also said that the plans had already been practiced and could be applied immediately in the event of instability.

Sharp also referred to the matter in late September with journalists specializing in military affairs in Washington, D.C. There he said, “We’ve really taken a look at kind of a wide range of other scenarios. Everything from huge refugee problems caused by food or famine or other problems in North Korea, to great instability due to fighting factions, to regime change type.”

Based on the various statements Sharp has made, the operational plan currently under discussion by South Korea and the U.S. includes plans for military operations in response to five or six scenarios of upheavals in North Korea, including the outflow of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD), a civil war resulting from a regime change or coup d’etat, a South Korean hostage incident within North Korea, a large-scale defection of North Koreans residents, and a large-scale natural disaster.

The efforts to flesh out OPLAN 5029 are prompting some observers to comment that one of the most problematic aspects of the OPLAN 5029 discussion is that it places the CFC and not the South Korean government as the main agency in charge with handling the “sudden change” in North Korea, an issue that led to a dispute in 2005 between South Korea and the U.S.

A senior foreign policy and national security official from the Roh administration said, “The Roh Moo-hyun administration determined that a major issue with OPLAN 5029 involved the sovereignty of South Korea and thus halted drafting the plan in agreement with then-U.S. President George W. Bush during the June 2005 South Korea-U.S. summit.” This official also said that in the working plan discussed by South Korean and U.S. military authorities at the time, the CFC commander would take the initiative in responding to all situations, not just ones in the military sector, in the event of a North Korean upheaval. The official added, “If an upheaval takes place in North Korea, it is natural that the South Korean president should have the authority to lead the response, and it is appropriate that the South Korean president responds by giving directions to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff.”

Other observers are saying that the title “operational plan” is itself inappropriate because it assumes a wartime situation. Operational plans controlled by the CFC commander automatically go into effect if a war breaks out, but an upheaval in North Korea is not equivalent to a wartime situation.

Another factor analysts are considering is China’s reaction to OPLAN 5029. Some note that if South Korea crosses the armistice line without North Korea’s consent or request, it could be seen as an act of invasion according to international law, as South Korea is not a signatory to the armistice agreement that ended hostilities in the Korean War, while China, which is a signatory, has a justification for involvement if the South Korean and U.S. militaries enter North Korea.

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