hankyoreh

The 2010 outlook on the Korean Peninsula is a somewhat bright one. As we recall, last year started off with tensions high and a possibility of a military clash between North Korea and South Korea. We are astonished at how much has since changed.

Contributing to this favorable outlook is that will be no regime change in the administrations of South Korea or the U.S. serving as a factor of instability, as they did in 2008 and 2008, respectively. According to an open-ended questionnaire administered to 42 scholars and former high-level officials on inter-Korean issues, conducted annually by the Hankyoreh and the Institute for Far Eastern Studies, the forecast suggests a high probability of a third inter-Korean summit within the year.

The Hankyoreh is focusing its reporting on analysis of three major items in the survey‘s results. The first item is of the respondents’ analysis of a possibility of an inter-Korean summit, and the second is of the respondents‘ analysis of progress on the North Korean nuclear issue. What follows below is the third report on the respondents’ answers with a focus on questions about U.S. progress on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Most of the respondents offered a reserved assessment on the Obama administration 2009 North Korea policy. They determined that although the administration had demonstrated a clear intention to resolve the nuclear issue through negotiation and dialogue, it has not yet presented a concrete vision and strategy.

In contrast, Obama’s emphasis on direct dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea as a presidential candidate had prompted a more favorable response from respondents the year before.

Chung Chang-hyun, president of Minjok 21, a monthly magazine on North Korean issue, said, “The Obama administration is following the North Korean policy of the second term of the Bush administration.” He added, “Up until this point, it has not yet demonstrated its own North Korean policy.”

The North Korea experts and former high officials also commented on the economic crisis originating from the U.S., the struggle with health care reform and issues with Iran and Afghanistan as factors in why the Obama administration has shown demonstrated a dubious North Korea policy. In other words, the respondents believe these issues have contributed to North Korea’s lower ranking in the U.S.‘s list of priorities.

Other respondents were more severe in their assessments of Obama’s North Korean policy by calling it “a failure.” Kim Yeon-cheol, head of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, said, “The Obama administration’s emphasis on cooperating with the South Korean government that has demonstrated methods of governance compared to the Bush administration has led to a failure in North Korean policy.” Kim and others suggest cooperation with a conservative ruling South Korean government has weakened efforts to gain momentum towards negotiation with North Korea.

A professor who opted for anonymity said, “The Obama administration’s North Korean policy has become the hostage of bureaucratic politics in Washington D.C. and the conservative governments of Seoul and Tokyo.” He described it as “an typical policy without any creativity.”

Others recognized some differences between Obama administration’s North Korean policy and that of the Bush administration. Jeong Se-hyun, former Unification Minister, said, “Since her inauguration, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has suggested a peace agreement as part of the solution on the North Korea nuclear issue and sent a similar message to North Korea even after the second nuclear test was conducted, and that is significant difference from the Bush administration.”

On the same item, some conservative-leaning experts offered a favorable assessment on Obama administration’s North Korean policy and said, “It has maintained the principle that the U.S. will not reward wrong behavior.” Chun Sung-hoon, senior research fellow of the Korean Institute for National Unification, said, “The Obama administration has shown a firm attitude and that it will not be cheated by North Korea, which has violated agreements repeatedly.” Chun added, “It has made it clear to North Korea that nuclearization will not benefit it.”

Please direct questions or comments to [englishhani@hani.co.kr]