hankyoreh

2012

By Gil Yun-hyung and Cho Hye-jeong, staff reporters

On Apr. 5, North Korea asked the foreign embassies in Pyongyang to submit their emergency evacuation plans. Following the revelation that the deadline for submission is Apr. 10, many are speculating as to why this date was chosen.

The day before, Apr. 4, North Korea also asked the South Korean companies operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex to inform the government of their plans for returning to Korea by Apr. 10.

“It is possible that a missile launch by North Korea or some similar event could take place around that time [Apr. 10],” said Blue House national security chief Kim Jang-soo regarding this. “We are making thorough preparations, bearing in mind every possibility.”

In the event that the North actually carries out a launch, it is very likely to be the Musudan mid-range ballistic missile (2,500-4,000km), which was confirmed to have been relocated from the military factory in Pyongyang to the vicinity of Wonsan on the east coast.

Reports say that it is very difficult to detect a Musudan launch in advance, since it can be fired from a mobile launcher and it only takes 10 minutes to prepare for the launch.

“While it can’t be known for sure why North Korea selected Apr. 10, it is possible to speculate,” said a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official. The next day, marks the first anniversary of Kim Jong-un’s inauguration, while four days later, on Apr. 15, is the 101st birthday of [North Korean founder and Kim Jong-un’s grandfather] Kim Il-sung, which is a national holiday in the country. For North Korea, this is an ideal moment to further solidify domestic unity by taking military action.

It was around this time last year on Apr. 13 that North Korea unsuccessfully attempted to launch a Unha-3 rocket that was carrying the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite.

“If North Korea actually launches a missile, it will be a violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions [four in total including 1718] that forbid all launches using ballistic missile technology,” said the official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “The UNSC will not look on with folded arms and watch this happen.”

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