hankyoreh

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

The South and North Korean armies were facing off in immediate readiness postures while gunfire was being exchanged over propaganda leaflets on Oct. 10, military sources reported on Oct. 19.

The touch-and-go situation saw North Korean long-range artillery emerge from tunnels to await fire, while South Korean F-15K fighter jets awaited sortie orders at Daegu Airbase. Meanwhile, the announcement of another planned launch on Oct. 25 by some of the private groups behind the leaflets are raising concerns about a possible military clash.

According to accounts on Oct. 19 from New Politics Alliance for Democracy lawmaker and National Assembly National Defense Committee member Yoon Hu-duk and senior military officers, the South Korean Army’s I, V, and VI Corps assumed readiness posture on the ground after police intercepted information about another leaflet launch by Lee Min-bok of the Campaign for Helping North Korea in a Direct Way and others around 12:32 pm on Oct. 10. The timing roughly coincided with an exchange of fire between the two sides in Yeoncheon, Gyeonggi Province.

In response to the movement, 155-mm K-9 howitzers began maneuvers and prepared for fire, while F-15K fighter planes armed with missiles went into standby at Daegu Air Base.

Military intelligence officers also reportedly detected the North Korean military readying itself for fire after Lee and his group began launching the balloons in Yeoncheon at 2:06 pm, with long-range artillery emerging from tunnels and going into operational mode.

Previously, Air Force Chief of Staff Choi Cha-kyu confirmed at a National Defense Committee audit of the Air Force headquarters at the National Assembly on Oct. 15 that the F-15K fighters at Daegu Air Base were equipped with air-to-surface missiles and in takeoff posture.

When asked directly about it by Yoon Hu-duk, Choi responded, “That’s correct. They were prepared with small-diameter bombs (SDBs).”

The GBU-39 small-diameter bomb, which entered combat deployment in 2013, is capable of penetrating a 90-cm concrete wall, and may be used to conduct a precision strike on tunnels used for hiding long-range artillery. Choi‘s account would mean the North Korean long-range artillery movement prompted the South Korean side to prepare for a counterstrike.

“Nearby bases all go into Level A operational alert posture when there is a leaflet launch by a refugee group,” explained a military officer on condition of anonymity.

“We have three levels of situation - A, B, and C - and Level A is the highest, operational readiness, where all fire units under command go into an operational response posture,” the officer added.

Sources confirmed that military authorities have maintained this posture for every leaflet launch since Sept. 2012, when North Korea first threatened to “strike at the source” of the balloons.

Indeed, the military has also developed specific guidelines for response to a North Korean strike at the source. According to military materials acquired by Yoon, the military has response plans for four hypothetical scenarios of a North Korean strike under those circumstances.

The guidelines stipulate no response should be attempted if North Korean fire does not land on the South Korean side. But for any cases where shells do land, the level of response is determined by the occurrence of South Korean facility damage and casualties.

If no damage is present, the military is to issue a warning broadcast and fire warning shots near the provocation’s source. This was the situation on Oct. 10, when the military responded with K-6 machine gun fire to the use of anti-aircraft guns by North Korea.

But in cases where South Korean facilities are damaged, the guidelines call for the military to return fire and substantially damage facilities at the provocation‘s source. In cases where human casualties occur, the military is to return fire to cause substantial damage to troops at the source.

This suggests the situation on Oct. 10 may have been more dangerous than many imagined - with the possibility of escalating into serious artillery exchanges had fallen North Korean shells caused damage to any South Korean persons or property.

“This is clearly a situation where the leaflet launches have raised the risk of war and damage to residents of the region,” said Yoon.

“Rather than just talking about how the launches are protected by ‘freedom of expression,’ we ought to give more thought to the justifiable concerns of local residents,” he added.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]