Former world leaders call for negotiations over North Korean nuclear program

Posted on : 2017-12-12 17:25 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Pyongyang waiting for Moon administration to “become more independent” before agreeing to dialogue
South Korean Special Presidential Advisor for Foreign Affairs Moon Chung-in
South Korean Special Presidential Advisor for Foreign Affairs Moon Chung-in

With North Korea declaring the “completion of the state nuclear force” after its Nov. 29 test-launch of the new Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), experts at a Dec. 11 conference agreed the only solution to the nuclear and missile crisis lies in diplomacy, dialogue, and negotiation. Some maintained that while the risk of rising tensions between Pyongyang and Washington leading to a military clash on the Korean Peninsula is not high, it is also not small enough to be ignored. Experts also argued that the Six-Party Talks remain a valid framework for resolving the nuclear issue.

“It would be suicidal for North Korea to attack the US,” said former US Secretary of State Colin Powell, one of the attendees at the 2017 Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) Conference on Global Affairs. The conference, which began that morning at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul’s Seocho neighborhood, focused on the theme “Nuclear-Free Korean Peninsula: Strategies and Action Program for the Moon Jae-in Administration.”

“If North Korea attacked the US, the US would immediately strike back [against North Korea], and the North Korean regime would be no more. I don’t believe North Korea will do anything suicidal,” Powell continued.

Powell served as Secretary of State from 2001 to 2005 under President George W. Bush. Prior to that, he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1989 to 2003, a period that included the presidency of Bush’s father George H. W. Bush.

As a solution to the North Korean nuclear issue, Powell called for “continuing to apply democratic methods, using diplomatic and deterrence capabilities and holding dialogue with North Korea toward peace.”

“There is nothing to lose through dialogue. Who suffers if we talk to North Korea?” he added.

On the possibility of war on the peninsula, Powell referred to the experience of the Cold War between the US and Soviet Union.

“The political environment has to almost totally collapse for you to rely on weapons. We watched the Soviet Union and saw that the political environment was in a state of total collapse,” he said.

“For now, [the US] will observe the political situation [surrounding North Korea issues],” he added, rating the likely of a war on the peninsula at “around five percent.”

Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gave the chances of a war at “25%,” insisting that diplomacy was “the only method.” As a solution to the nuclear issue, Rudd proposed a “grand bargain” approach beginning with an ICBM freeze by Pyongyang and continuing with the long-term abandonment of all its remaining nuclear weapons.

“We need to look at what North Korea wants,” Rudd said.

“First, it wants its regime’s survival. The second has nothing to do with waging nuclear war – it wants leverage over South Korea and Japan,” he said.

“North Korea’s key strategy goal is to break down solidarity with the US’s alliances,” Rudd suggested.

“There are concerns that if the US makes a ‘deal’ with North Korea on ICBM capabilities, it could hurt its relationships with allies in northeast Asia,” he noted.

In response to Rudd’s suggestion, former Under Secretary of State Thomas Pickering said, “In the area of nuclear weapons, there needs to be a grand bargain. Building trust is crucial, and there’s a lot of short-term uncertainty.”

“I’m not sure if this is actually possible. We need to try at least,” he said.

Six-Party Talks remain a valid platform for dialogue

In contrast with many others attending the conference, Pickering voiced a negative position on the “dual freeze” approach of halting joint South Korea-US military exercise in exchange for a freeze on North Korean nuclear and missile testing. With trust in North Korea at rock bottom, negotiations should be aimed at strengthening verification, he argued. The attendees agreed the Six-Party Talks were still a valid platform for achieving dialogue on the North Korean nuclear issue.

In a luncheon address that day, South Korean special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs and Six-Party Talks chief representative Lee Do-hoon agreed that sanctions and pressure “certainly are useful tools,” but stressed that “North Korea’s denuclearization cannot be achieved through sanctions and pressure alone.”

“In the end, we can only achieve that through dialogue and negotiation,” he said.

Lee went on to stress that Seoul “needs to have dialogue with North Korea,” adding that the principle of dialogue would lie in proceeding from a nuclear freeze to complete denuclearization. Noting the current tensions on the Korean Peninsula, he said that Seoul “is trying to keep the situation on a stable footing.”

“In that sense, the Pyeongchang Olympics in February will provide an important opportunity,” he added.

“If North Korea decides to participate [in the Pyeongchang Olympics], refrains from further provocations to abide by the UN’s Olympic truce resolution, and declares its intention to hold sincere dialogue, that will open up an opportunity for broad-based discussions with South Korea and other concerned nations on areas of mutual interest,” Lee suggested.

Alexander Vorontsov, head of the Korean and Mongolian Studies Department at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, shared Pyongyang’s position on the Pyeongchang Olympics as communicated by a senior Foreign Ministry official he met during a mid-November visit to North Korea. According to Vorontsov, the official told him North Korea “has no opposition to the Pyeongchang Olympics” and “does not intend to do anything to hurt the games.”

“But if the US does anything that North Korea perceives as aggressive, we will respond immediately,” he quoted the official as saying.

The official also stressed that “the important thing is actions, not words” and complained that the Moon Jae-in administration “appears to be following the US’s position too much,” Vorontsov said.

“We’re waiting for the Moon administration to become more independent,” Voronstov quoted the official as saying.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

button that move to original korean article (클릭시 원문으로 이동하는 버튼)

Related stories