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President Moon Jae-in speaks with US President Donald Trump during a phone call at the Blue House on Jan. 4. At Moon’s right is Chung Eui-yong

The leaders of South Korea and the US abruptly agreed to delay their annual joint military exercises in their first telephone conversation of the New Year, paving the way for dialogue on the Korean Peninsula around the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. This is likely to provide momentum for inter-Korean relations, as the two sides prepare for governmental talks following the restoration of the communication channel at Panmunjeom.

According to an explanation by the Blue House on Jan. 4, South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump spoke on the phone on Jan. 3 at the request of the US and promised to strive to ensure the safety and success of the Pyeongchang Olympics. Toward this end, Moon and Trump agreed that the two militaries would not hold joint exercises during the course of the Olympics but would instead work to ensure the safety of the Olympics. The apparent result is that the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises, which are normally held each year between February and April, cannot be held until April.

During an interview with NBC on Dec. 19, Moon said he had suggested to the US that they delay the joint military exercises until after the Pyeongchang Olympics. During the telephone call yesterday, the Blue House said, Moon explained that the high-level inter-Korean talks for which preparations have been ongoing since Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address will help set the mood for dialogue between the US and North Korea to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. Moon emphasized that he would remain in close consultation with the US during this process, the Blue House added.

These remarks appear to be aimed at easing concerns that inter-Korean dialogue taking place amid sanctions and pressure on North Korea by the international community could interfere with cooperation between South Korea and the US. They also appear to reflect his pragmatic view that inter-Korean dialogue taking place outside of close consultation with the US would not be sustainable.

With South Korea and the US deciding to suspend the military exercises during the Pyeongchang Olympics, it’s likely that a peaceful mood will prevail on the Korean Peninsula at least until the end of March, provided that North Korea does not carry out any more nuclear weapon or missile provocations. The North has not committed any such provocations since announcing the “completion of its state nuclear force” following the launch of the Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Nov. 29, 2017.

If this situation continues until the Olympic truce (from Feb. 2 to Mar. 25), it would naturally produce the “double freeze” scenario that China and Russia have proposed as a solution to the North Korean nuclear situation, namely North Korea suspending its provocations at the same time as the US and South Korea suspend their military exercises.

This appears to have been what motivated Moon and Trump to offer “the safety and success of the Olympics” as their justification for delaying the joint military exercises. That would mean they wanted to emphasize that the postponement of the exercises was a voluntary decision by the allies to create peaceful Olympic Games, rather than a preliminary move to initiate the “double freeze” scenario. South Korea and the US have made clear that their joint military exercises, which are legal, cannot be traded for North Korea’s nuclear weapon and military provocations, which are illegal.

During the telephone call, Moon reportedly expressed his gratitude to Trump for having remained firmly committed to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which Moon said had helped lead to inter-Korean dialogue. This is similar to what Trump wrote on his Twitter account before the telephone call, namely that inter-Korean dialogue is “a good thing.” “With all of the failed ‘experts’ weighing in, does anybody really believe that talks and dialogue would be going on between North and South Korea right now if I wasn’t firm, strong and willing to commit our total ‘might’ against the North,” Trump wrote in his tweet.

The proposed high-level inter-Korean talks are expected to talk place at the House of Peace on the South Korean side of the DMZ in Panmunjeom.

In a related development, South Korea’s Unification Ministry announced on Jan. 5 that North Korea has accepted its proposal for talks at the House of Peace in Panmunjeom on Jan. 9.

“At 10:16 this morning, North Korea sent us a cable about the talks,” Unification Ministry Spokesperson Baek Tae-hyeon said during the regular briefing on Jan. 5.

“The agenda [of the talks] will be the question of improving inter-Korean relations, including talks about the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. We agreed to discuss practical matters related to holding the talks through exchanging documents,” Baek said.

According to the Unification Ministry, the cable sent by North Korea was signed by Ri Son-gwon, chair of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, and addressed to South Korean Unification Minister Cho Myoung-gwon.

By Jung In-hwan, Lee Bon-young, and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporters

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