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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and President of the Presidium of the North Korean Supreme People‘s Assembly

The possibilities for an inter-Korean summit raised by a high-level North Korean delegation’s recent visit have many now watching to see Seoul’s follow-up measures in response. With South Korean President Moon Jae-in responding to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s invitation to visit the North by calling to “form the right conditions,” the South Korean government appears poised to focus on keeping the momentum of inter-Korean dialogue going while establishing the right “environment” for a summit.

“The first steps have been taken toward enabling comprehensive discussions between the South and North Korean leaders on Korean Peninsula issues and major concerns in inter-Korean relations,” Ministry of Unification spokesperson Baik Tae-hyun said in a Feb. 12 briefing.

“We’re going to continuing keeping an eye on related activities while government ministries hold close discussions to take follow-up measures in response,” Baik added.

The Ministry of Unification previously released informational materials on the evening of Feb. 11 following the North Korean delegation’s return.

“This is the first time since [Korea’s] division that a state leader according to the North Korean Constitution and a member of the top leader’s immediate family have visited the South Korean region,” the materials said.

They went on to say the visit “showed that North Korea’s commitment to improving inter-Korean relations is very strong, and that it is willing to take unprecedented bold measures if necessary.”

“While the first steps have been taken toward fully restoring inter-Korean relations and achieving a peaceful resolution to Korean Peninsula issues, differences of opinion remain on the resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, and no visible progress has been made in the Korean Peninsula denuclearization process,” the ministry cautioned.

“The question now is whether the space for dialogue and cooperation created with the Pyeongchang Olympics can be successfully developed to achieve a turning point in the process of improving inter-Korean relations and establishing peace on the Korean Peninsula,” it added.

The ministry also outlined the chief principles informing its “avenues for future pursuit in inter-Korean relations,” including attempts to normalize inter-Korean relations while preserving continuity in dialogue and achieving a “positive feedback loop” between progress in inter-Korean relations and denuclearization of the peninsula. In particular, it announced plans to “seek out flexible mutual direction according to the circumstances,” including the “promotion of North Korea-US relations through progress in inter-Korean relations.”

The message reads as a commitment from Seoul to respond to a lack of progress in North Korea-US dialogue to resolve the nuclear issue by further promoting inter-Korean relations to provide an active impetus.

For now, Seoul appears set to work on preserving continuity in dialogue through measures to relax military tensions and address humanitarian issues such as divided families, while focusing its efforts on paving the way for a summit by bridging differences of opinion on the nuclear issue between South and North and between North Korea and the US. It is also expected to send a special envoy to or hold high-level talks with the North to coordinate opinions as needed.

The dispatching of a special envoy could take the form of a “return visit” in response to a North Korean envoy’s visit. This could lend momentum to a summit push, as the two sides’ leaders would be able to fully express their positions. One drawback is that an envoy’s role would be limited without the coordination of opinions on matters such as North Korea’s nuclear program.

The Blue House still appears to be chewing over the idea of a special envoy. “The discussions haven’t even started yet,” a senior Blue House official said. “Right now, there’s not going to be any special envoy in the President’s mind.”

“The right conditions are important. This is not something we want to rush,” the official stressed

.

With the two leaders’ commitment already in evidence and various communication channels restored, there may also be no need to insist on a special envoy.

At high-level talks on Jan. 9 in Panmunjeom, the two sides agreed to hold talks between military authorities and in different areas in addition to the senior-level talks to improve inter-Korean relations. This means one possible approach would involve establishing future response measures through high-level talks chiefly between South Korean Minister of Unification Chou Myoung-gyon and North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland chairman Ri Son-gwon. If this happens, it is seen as most likely to take place between the Pyeongchang Olympics closing ceremony on Feb. 25 and the opening of the Paralympics on Mar. 9.

“If a third inter-Korean summit is held, there is going to need to be progress in terms of an agreement on the North Korean nuclear issue,” said Institute for National Security Strategy senior research fellow Cho Seong-ryoul.

“A realistic plan for now would involve using the high-level talks to organize follow-up Red Cross or military talks as we work on narrowing the differences in position on denuclearization,” Cho suggested.

By Kim Bo-hyeop, staff reporter

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