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South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un hold up their respective copies of the Pyongyang Declaration after signing the agreement at the Paekhwawon Guest House in Pyongyang on Sept. 19. (photo pool)

The “Action Plan for Denuclearization” contained in the Pyongyang Declaration, which was signed by South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Sept. 19, can be summed up as North Korea making additional upfront moves and promises in order to draw out reciprocal measures from the United States. In the sense that it is the agreement of two leaders, it could be called a preliminary joint denuclearization roadmap.

Among North Korea’s additional upfront steps is the verifiable and irreversible shutdown of the missile engine test site at Tongchang Village, which was agreed upon during the June 12 North Korea-US summit in Singapore. Although civilian satellites captured images last July that showed parts of the facility’s launch pad and rocket engine test stand were already dismantled, it was unclear whether this was a step toward an actual shutdown. If dismantlement is carried out with foreign experts present, the move will likely help quell concerns about the sincerity of North Korea’s advance denuclearization measures so far.

Kim’s promise to permanently shut down the Yongbyon nuclear complex was made in order to induce reciprocal measures from the US. By showing a more proactive measure toward denuclearization, the move can be understood as a way of broadening the path for reciprocal measures from the US, such as an end-of-war declaration.

On Sept. 5, Kim revealed to Moon’s special envoys that he would be willing to take even more proactive measures if the US were to reciprocate. University of North Korean Studies Professor Koo Kap-woo said, “With the promise of the permanent dismantlement of the Yongbyon nuclear complex, North Korea appears to have reaffirmed the need for phasal, simultaneous measures.”

The Yongbyon nuclear complex represents North Korea’s present and future nuclear capabilities. In promising the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear complex, Kim has offered the first ever indication that North Korea is willing to give up even its “current nukes.”

This is in the same vein as Moon’s proclamation before the summit that, “What North Korea must do now is take another step forward and give up its current nuclear weapons, material, facilities and program.” It seems that Kim has acknowledged Moon’s suggestion. The joint declaration states that “[North Korea] is prepared to take additional measures similar to the permanent shutdown of the Yongbyong nuclear facility.”

This suggests that with the right reciprocal measures from the US, the shutdown of North Korea’s “current nukes” could be extended to “past nukes”, such as nuclear material and weapons.

“It seems like they differentiated between what can be addressed between North and South Korea and what can be addressed between North Korea and the US,” said Cho Sung-ryul, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Strategy. “The so-called ‘past nukes’ seem like a point of discussion that will be pursued by the US and North Korea.”

Yet what isn’t in the joint declaration may have special importance.

“There was a lot of discussion besides the contents of the joint declaration,” said Blue House National Security Office Director Chung Eui-yong. “With the outcome of these discussions as a foundation, we will thoroughly discuss ways to hasten the denuclearization negotiations at the South Korea-US summit early next week in New York.”

Recalling Moon’s comments that if this summit manages to restart talks between the US and North Korea, that is meaningful in itself” ahead of his journey to Pyongyang, it suggests that the inter-Korean summit has already been fruitful to a certain degree.

One expert familiar with the denuclearization negotiations said, “There is a chance that Chairman Kim, ahead of dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear complex, raised the possibility of additional advance measures in order to draw out reciprocal measures from the US [. . .] Once North Korea confirms the United States’ intent to take reciprocal measures, they may make other advance moves as well, such as reinstating International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors.”

It is also worth noting that the joint declaration does not make any mention of an “end-of-war declaration and list of nuclear sites” exchange, which is widely seen as the source of the deadlock between the US and North Korea. It seems that Kim sees the level of trust between the two countries as insufficient to offer a list of North Korea’s nuclear programs, which might be met with distrust even if provided.

Kim seems to be paving a path toward reporting North Korea’s nuclear weapons by first building trust through the shutdown of the Yongbyong nuclear complex and an end-of-war declaration. North and South Korea agreed to cooperate closely on the complete denuclearization of the peninsula, a move that makes inter-Korean cooperation a constant in future denuclearization negotiations.

If Moon can find common ground between the US and North Korea based on the outcomes of this inter-Korean summit at the upcoming South Korea-US summit, the denuclearization negotiations, headed toward an end-of-war declaration by the end of this year, will likely pick up speed.

By Yoo Kang-moon, senior staff writer, and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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