hankyoreh

US President Donald Trump.

As tensions in the Middle East rise following the US drone strike that killed Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian military leader and commander of its Quds Force, the incident is expected to also have an impact on the US’ denuclearization talks with North Korea.

The killing doesn’t send a positive signal for the North Korea-US negotiations, analysts say. Since the tinderbox in the Middle East is sure to attract the focus of US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy, the negotiations with North Korea might slip down his list of priorities.

“As instability rises across the entire Middle East, it will become harder for the US to actively intervene in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, including the denuclearization talks. Whenever tensions have been high in the Middle East, the US has attempted to maintain the status quo in Asia,” said Park Won-gon, a professor of international and area studies at Handong Global University.

But Park said that the US’ killing of Soleimani probably shouldn’t be taken as a warning for North Korea. “North Korea and Iran are different places. Trump has a good relationship with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un, whereas he seems ready to declare all-out war on Iran. Trump appears to have seen Iran as being a better option for tough action than North Korea. This incident shouldn’t be seen as a warning against North Korea.”

But if the Iranian situation ends up prolonging the impasse in the North Korea-US negotiations, North Korea might take provocative action. During a recent plenary session of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un mentioned a “new strategic weapon” while stating that the North’s course of action would depend on whether the US has a change of attitude.

The South Korean government is working aggressively to preserve the momentum of the North Korea-US talks. On Jan. 3, South Korean Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Kim Gunn had a discussion with US Assistant Secretary of State David Stilwell at the office of the US State Department in Washington. “Kim and Stilwell had a detailed discussion about various areas of mutual interest, including South Korea-US relations, alliance affairs, and regional affairs affecting both countries,” South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

Following Kim and Stilwell’s meeting, South Korea and the US are trying to set up a meeting between their top diplomats and between their envoys on North Korea’s nuclear program. The two sides have activated a range of diplomatic channels since the beginning of the year in an apparent effort to coordinate their North Korean policy. “There are many things for South Korea and the US to discuss, including the results of North Korea’s plenary session. South Korea and the US need to work together to ensure that North Korea doesn’t cross a red line,” said Park, the Handong Global University professor.

By Kim So-youn, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]