S. Korea, US look to rekindle negotiations with N. Korea via Tokyo Olympics

Posted on : 2020-10-19 16:07 KST Modified on : 2020-10-19 16:07 KST
US national security advisor to visit S. Korea in November
Blue House National Security Office Director Suh Hoon leaves the US Department of State in Washington, DC, after meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Oct. 15. (Yonhap News)
Blue House National Security Office Director Suh Hoon leaves the US Department of State in Washington, DC, after meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Oct. 15. (Yonhap News)

Top foreign policy and national security officials in South Korea and the US are reportedly in agreement about using the 2020 Summer Olympics, which will be held in Tokyo, as a springboard for ending the deadlock in North Korea-US relations, leading to speculation about the feasibility of such a plan. US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien has also announced plans to visit South Korea in November. But any attempt to recreate the diplomatic success of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang will have to overcome the variables of the COVID-19 pandemic and the US presidential election next month.

On Oct. 18, Blue House Spokesperson Kang Min-seok summarized the results of Blue House National Security Office Director Suh Hoon’s visit to the US on Oct. 13-16. “South Korea and the US held an in-depth discussion about ways to resume North Korea-US dialogue and make meaningful progress on bringing about the permanent denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and establishing lasting peace there. At Suh Hoon’s request, Robert O’Brien agreed to visit South Korea in November,” Kang said. In effect, the top national security officials in the Blue House and the White House reconfirmed that North Korea-US dialogue should continue regardless of the results of the US presidential election on Nov. 3.

Suh and O’Brien apparently agree that the Tokyo Olympics, which are scheduled to be held in July 2021, are an opportunity for improving North Korea-US relations. O’Brien said the US sincerely hopes the Olympics will be an opportunity for progress, responding to a question about the US’ strategy for North Korea and the prospects of North Korea’s denuclearization in a teleconference organized by the Aspen Institute, a US-based think tank, on Oct. 16. That was the first time that a high-ranking American official has specifically mentioned a timeframe for resuming the North Korea-US negotiations, which are currently at an impasse.

“I think the North Koreans are interested in participating in the Olympics in Tokyo. There might be a season, either before, during or after the Olympics, where the parties could come together and have some negotiations that lead to some prosperity and better economic times for the North Korean people,” he added.

O’Brien added that the Olympics might open the door for negotiations that could lead to several more sensible steps toward nuclear disarmament and denuclearization. “I am hopeful that after the election, once the North Koreans realize that there is no other option, then we’ll have a chance to negotiate,” O’Brien said.

O’Brien’s comments, which were made two days after his meeting with Suh, on Oct. 14, appear to incorporate quite a bit of Suh’s plan for improving North Korea-US relations. When asked whether an initiative for North Korea-US dialogue around the Tokyo Olympics was discussed during Suh’s visit to the US, a Blue House official did not deny that such a discussion had occurred. “The full range of plans related to peninsular affairs was discussed,” the official said.

Suh played an instrumental role, though behind the scenes, in the dizzying progress made on the Korean Peninsula peace process around the Pyeongchang Olympics in 2018. The visit to South Korea by Kim Yo-jong, first deputy director of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea; three inter-Korean summits, and two North Korea-US summits were all sparked by the Pyeongchang Olympics.

The Blue House hopes to treat the events in Pyeongchang two years ago as a model for restoring momentum to the Korean Peninsula peace process in the second half of Moon Jae-in’s presidency. Officials think that deliberating the technical details of North Korea competing in the Tokyo Olympics and organizing a joint entrance and unified team with South Korea would naturally facilitate the arrangement of inter-Korean and North Korea-US negotiations.

Moon said in his New Year’s speech this past January that South and North Korea need to “continue deliberations about making a joint entrance and fielding a unified team in the Tokyo Olympics.” Officials expect that Moon’s proposal about formally ending the Korean War would be naturally dealt with during that process.

But these plans are all predicated on Trump being reelected as US president. If Joe Biden, candidate for the Democratic Party, wins the election instead, the US will likely spend a considerable amount of time reviewing its North Korea policy after Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. That would also weaken the significance of O’Brien visiting South Korea in November. Another variable is whether the COVID-19 pandemic will subside in time for the Tokyo Olympics to be held.

By Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporter, and Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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