hankyoreh

By Lee You-jin, staff reporter
Researchers are predicting that a shrinking population may leave South Koreans unable to maintain its current social and economic standing after 2045.
This was the projection in a report on future population strategy delivered on July 11 by the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA) at a meeting in Seoul. The event was organized by the Ministry of Health and Welfare for the first annual World Population Day.
The report provided the first-ever estimate of the country’s “optimum population,” meaning the most desirable number in terms of social and economic scale and structure. The predictions are calculated by assuming a population level that would allow for financial, sustainable growth, and consistent national standing.
According to the report, the 2012 population of fifty million people is higher than the optimum level of 48,860,000. This means that there is no labor shortage on paper. The researchers predicted a balance would be struck in 2044, when the population is expected to be 50,100,000 and the optimum population 50,070,000, narrowing the gap to just 30,000 people.
But the balance is not expected to last long. Beginning in 2045, the actual population would fall below the optimum population, with estimates of 49,810,000 for the former and 49,980,000 for the latter. The gap would continue to grow in the following years, with the actual population falling short of the optimum by 1,260,000 in 2050 and 3,510,000 in 2060.
Lee Sam-sik, chair of KIHASA’s aging and low fertility research division, stressed the need to increase the rate of family policy expenditures, introduce “baby bonuses,” and raise childbirth leave pay.
“If the current low birth rate continues, we can expect to see economic growth drop off to 1.2% by the 2040s, while the social service burden continues to mount,” Lee predicted.
　
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