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Candidates for the general election Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany party, Christian Lindner of the Free Democratic Party, Markus Soeder of the Christian Social Union, Armin Laschet of the Christian Democratic Union, Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party, and Janine Wissler of The Left, attend a final televised debate ahead of the election in Berlin, Germany September 23, 2021. (AP/Yonhap News)

Timo Fleckenstein

On September 26, Germans elected a new Bundestag – the country’s federal parliament – to find a new chancellor. After 16 years heading the government, Angela Merkel decided not to run for a fifth term.

On election day, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) won 25.7% of the vote in a tight race over Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which won 24.1%.

Whilst this is only a rather narrow victory, the SPD is over the moon, even though winning the election does not necessarily bring the “top job” with a parliament without a clear majority. Just a few months earlier, the party was as low as 14% in opinion polls, and they were widely expected to take third place behind the CDU and the Green Party. Obviously, the widely predicted race between the conservatives and the environmentalists did not quite materialize. Rather than competing for the highest office, the Greens dropped to 14.8% – still an increase of nearly 6 percentage points compared to four years ago.

Obviously, the SPD, far behind in opinion polls for most of the year, delivered an astonishing race to catch up with the CDU, and they overtook the Greens with ease at the end. Though they might not admit it, the SPD is probably as surprised as others about their electoral fortunes have turned. How did this happen? In most cases, commentators and analysts look out for a charismatic party leader who managed to “revamp” their party’s unappealing “brand” – somebody who embodies a fresh vision for the country with which a broad range of voters can identify. Remember Tony Blair, for instance?

For the chancellery, SPD nominated Olaf Scholz, a lawyer by training from the northern city of Hamburg who served as the country’s minister of finance under Merkel. Cynics might argue that he was nominated in the absence of alternatives, rather than because of the vision he offered. In fact, when Scholz sought the party’s leadership he experienced a painful defeat, and one could have thought this was the end of his ambition to become the first SPD Chancellor after Gerhard Schröder, who was defeated by Merkel in 2005. Not only was the centrist Scholz thought to lack a vision that would excite the party, he was also thought to lack charisma. In short, he was not exactly the sort of candidate that could have been expected to reverse the electoral fortunes of a party that seemed exhausted and ready for the opposition benches.

Certainly, his campaign benefited hugely from mistakes made by his competitors. The Green Party candidate struggled with plagiarism allegations, for instance; and without doubt, the CDU contender wishes he was not caught on camera laughing when visiting a flood-hit town. But it would be unfair to reduce Scholz’s success to the blunders of the competition.

Being aware that he was probably not the candidate that could win the hearts in market squares across the country, his campaign focussed on portraying him as a successful finance minister who managed the country’s economy during the global pandemic. Also, on the international stage, he was a driving force behind the global corporate minimum tax. In other words, his campaign concentrated on presenting him as a competent political leader who can be entrusted with the stewardship of Europe’s largest economy – possibly “dull”, yes; but the country would be in safe hands. With this strategy, he made himself the “natural” successor of Angela Merkel, who was widely considered a competent chancellor; and this brought Merkel support from voters across the political spectrum.

In a way, Olaf Scholz’ success is refreshing. It shows that an electoral strategy that emphasizes competence is still a viable option – rather than obsessing over how well a candidate is “liked” on the TV. This is rather different from Boris Johnson’s success story – a charismatic politician with sales-man if not showman qualities who is certainly not associated with competent political leadership. Whilst this UK-German comparison might offer extremes, it suggests two ideal-typical political pathways. At times of elections, parties face strategic choices to win over voters. In an age where populists across the world have achieved considerable electoral success (including gaining high of-fices), established political forces might be tempted to pursue similar strategies. This might be successful in the short term, as the case of Boris Johnson appears to suggest, but long-term success is questionable – not only for political parties but also the people.

In these difficult and still uncertain times, we need competent leadership to improve the working and living conditions of ordinary people. This is not normally achieved by easy solutions, but requires not only political convictions but also skills. In difficult times like ours, skills are more important than ever, and political parties might be well advised to choose their elites accordingly. If not, victory might turn into a pyrrhic victory – bringing damage not only to the political movement but also the people.

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