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A painting depicting South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un stands in front of the Blue House on Dec. 7. (Yonhap News)

A visit to Seoul this year by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un no longer appears feasible. While the visit remains in the realm of possibility, a senior official at the Blue House explicitly stated on Dec. 12 that a visit this year is unlikely because of several issues in North Korea. In light of this comment, we should probably conclude that Kim won’t be coming to Seoul by the year’s end.

There are presumably multiple reasons that Kim decided not to make a visit this year. His decision may have been swayed by opposition in some segments of South Korea, and he may not have been confident that security arrangements could keep him safe. But the biggest reason of all is probably the North Korea-US denuclearization talks, which remain at a standstill.

When Kim accepted South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s proposal to visit Seoul this year during their summit in Pyongyang in September, the two were presuming that the second North Korea-US summit would go smoothly. But high-level negotiations have been stalled for several months since US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s fourth visit to North Korea, which has also complicated the original plan for Kim to visit Seoul following the North Korea-US summit.

The South Korean government urged Kim to visit earlier than planned, believing that this would help lead to a breakthrough in this impasse, but that doesn’t appear to have been acceptable to the North Koreans. While the US is asking North Korea to submit a list of its nuclear facilities as a condition for the second summit, the North regards such a request as unreasonable and has been unresponsive to American requests for dialogue. If Kim were to take the bold step of visiting Seoul, he would need to promise some more progress on denuclearization, and he likely felt pressure because of his uncertainty that the US would take corresponding measures.

Incited by this atmosphere, some parts of the conservative establishment in South Korea are even saying that Seoul should readjust its relationship with Pyongyang and slow things down. That can hardly be regarded as a persuasive argument. In light of this year’s developments, it’s undeniable that the advancement of inter-Korean relations and progress on North Korea-US negotiations constitute a virtuous cycle. The deadlock may be dragging on, but that’s just one more reason to keep moving forward with inter-Korean relations.

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