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Some contingents of the Afghan government army that disintegrated after the Taliban’s capture of Kabul withdrew into the Panjshir Valley. (AFP)

Now that the Taliban have taken over Afghanistan, could armed resistance be sustainable?

Newspapers including the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday on social media claims that remnants of the Afghan government military had killed 30 Taliban fighters and captured 12 more on Friday in fighting in the mountainous districts of Pul-e-Hesar, Deh-e-Salah and Bano, about 160 kilometers north of the capital of Kabul.

Former acting defense minister Bismillah Khan Mohammadi referred to the fighters as “popular resistance forces” and said that “the resistance is still alive,” the New York Times reported.

A pro-Taliban Twitter account said that only half the number of Taliban fighters had been killed, but acknowledged that armed resistance was occurring.

This was the first example of resistance since the fall of Kabul that was fierce enough to cause deaths among the Taliban.

The fighting, which was led by a local police chief, was provoked by a house-to-house search by the Taliban, Afghan government officials said.

Some contingents of the government army that disintegrated after the Taliban’s capture of Kabul withdrew into this mountainous area, which is difficult to reach by road, the New York Times reported.

There has also been an uprising against the Taliban in the Panjshir Valley as people try to reforge the Northern Alliance. This valley was the base of operations of anti-Taliban forces during the civil war in the 1990s.

“Amrullah Saleh, who was the country’s first vice president until this week, wrote in a text message that his forces and the fighters to the north were ‘under one command structure,’” the New York Times reported.

Saleh, who describes himself as Afghanistan’s “caretaker president,” said that “the resistance will grow” and that “Afghanistan is alive and hasn’t become a Talibanistan.”

The Panjshir Valley was the base of Ahmed Shah Massoud, leader of the most powerful group of mujahedeen during the resistance to the Soviet occupation in the 1980s. After the Soviet withdrawal, Massoud occupied Kabul but was later driven out by the Taliban in 1996.

After returning to the Panjshir Valley, Massoud set up the Northern Alliance and led the fight against the Taliban. While Massoud died in a suicide bombing by Al Qaeda agents disguised as reporters two days before the 9/11 terrorist attacks, in 2001, the Northern Alliance served as the vanguard of the US invasion of Afghanistan in October that toppled the Taliban regime.

The Northern Alliance consists of Tajik and Uzbek militants in northern Afghanistan, while the Taliban draw its strength from the Pashtun people, Afghanistan’s largest ethnic group, in the south.

The extent of the remnants of the Northern Alliance and other anti-Taliban groups in the Panjshir Valley remains unclear, but warlords have husbanded strength in the area.

If the remnants of the Northern Alliance combine with surviving contingents of the government security forces and take advantage of the geographical advantages of the Panjshir Valley, they’re expected to empower an armed resistance against the Taliban.

But the crucial ingredient is support from the outside.

Foreign support is the fundamental reason that various Afghan resistance forces — including the mujahadeen during the Soviet occupation, the Taliban during the civil war, and the Northern Alliance after 9/11 — were able to project strength.

Major powers and neighboring countries have aided resistance groups inside Afghanistan as part of a proxy war aimed at bringing the country into their sphere of influence. But those foreign forces aren’t as motivated to wage proxy wars in Afghanistan as they used to be.

Considering that the US hastily withdrew from Afghanistan after 20 years of war with the Taliban, it doesn’t have the motivation or resolve to support an anti-Taliban alliance. Furthermore, the US needs to maintain cooperation with the Taliban and avoid angering the group if it’s to achieve its top priority of evacuating American and allied citizens and Afghans who worked with the US.

“The Pentagon has said there are no military or security forces from the Afghan regime still operating as functioning units in the fight against Taliban,” the New York Times reported.

Pakistan, the country with the biggest influence on Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion, helped establish the Taliban and rebuild it after its defeat. As such, Pakistan’s priority is consolidating the Taliban’s rule.

China and Russia have also expressed support for the Taliban through high-level contact with the group around the fall of Kabul.

The Taliban have an overwhelming advantage, both in terms of military strength and popular support. While the warlords of the Northern Alliance earned public resentment through sexual assault, kidnapping, and toll collection, the Taliban earned public support in rural areas by restoring order.

And now the Taliban have acquired caches of weaponry and equipment left behind by the US military when it withdrew.

Ahmad Massoud, son of Ahmed Shah Massoud, wrote an opinion piece in the Washington Post on Tuesday in which he said he was ready to “follow in his father’s footsteps” and asked for weapons and supplies. But the fact that he had to turn to the press testifies to the isolation of the anti-Taliban forces in the Panjshir Valley.

Massoud said that his forces can’t last long without support from the US or other foreign powers.

The Taliban have already blockaded the Panjshir Valley by cutting off major supply routes, the Guardian reported, quoting a source familiar with the situation on the ground. The source said it won’t be easy for the Taliban to enter Panjshir but said that the Taliban are much stronger than the forces in Panjshir.

Some think the anti-Taliban forces are more interested in gaining leverage in negotiations than in actually sustaining an armed resistance.

Ahmad Wali Massoud, younger brother of Ahmad Shah Massoud, called on the Taliban to set up an inclusive government in a video interview with the Financial Times.

“If there’s an agreement, a peace settlement, everyone will join. But if there’s no agreement ... it’s not only Panjshir, it’s the women of Afghanistan, civil society, the young generation — it’s all the people of the resistance,” Massoud said.

“Massoud was part of a delegation that travelled recently to Pakistan to lobby prime minister Imran Khan. They want Islamabad to convince the Taliban not to attack Panjshir and agree to a government that includes all ethnic groups,” the Financial Times reported.

By Jung E-gil, staff reporter

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