hankyoreh

South Korean President Moon Jae-in. (provided by the Blue House)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in is visiting China on Dec. 23-24 to attend a trilateral summit with China and Japan. The next question is whether a bilateral South Korea-Japan summit will be held during the same period to address Japan’s export controls and the two sides’ General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA).

Blue House Spokesperson Ko Min-jung said on Dec. 10 that Moon “will be arriving in China on Dec. 23 for a two-day visit to attend the eighth South Korea-China-Japan summit.”

“In a meeting to take place on Dec. 24 in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, he is scheduled to discuss plans for substantive trilateral cooperation with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, as well as to assess the recent Korean Peninsula situation and discuss plans for trilateral cooperation to achieve complete denuclearization and the establishment of permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula,” she continued.

The Blue House is pursuing bilateral summits with both Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping during Moon’s China visit.

On Nov. 22, South Korea and Japan agreed in principle on South Korea postponing the termination of GSOMIA in exchange for Japan adding South Korea back to its “white list” of countries receiving expedited export reviews and removing its export controls on three semiconductor- and display-related items (photoresist, fluorine polyimides, and hydrogen fluoride). The two sides are currently involved in trade discussions at the bureau director level. If a South Korea-Japan summit does take place, it will be the first in the 15 months since a previous one at the UN General Assembly session in September 2018.

If the two leaders can confirm the other side’s sincere intentions, the conflict touched off by Japan’s imposition of export controls last July is very likely to be resolved quickly. But if Japan keeps its export controls in place, relations stand to deteriorate rapidly. With Seoul already stating that it “cannot wait forever” for the lifting of Japan’s export control measures, it may choose to revisit a withdrawal of its GSOMIA postponement decision.

The two leaders also appear likely to discuss the matter of compensation for victims of forced labor, which was the motivating factor behind the Japanese government’s export controls.

“If a South Korea-Japan summit is held, they’re very likely to emphasize the two sides’ ongoing cooperation on security issues related to North Korea’s nuclear program and peace in Northeast Asia, while avoiding any escalation or worsening of their relationship,” predicted Kim Sook-hyeon, director of the international strategy research office at the Institute for National Security Strategy.

“The forced labor mobilization and export control issues are unlikely to be resolved all at once at this summit,” she added.

The Blue House is also currently working to coordinate a South Korea-China summit between Moon Jae-in and Xi Jinping in Beijing. The two sides reportedly discussed a possible summit during a visit on Dec. 4-5 by Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi.

By Seong Yeon-cheol and Park Min-hee, staff reporters

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]