Definition of “normalcy” must precede return to normalcy, disease expert says

Posted on : 2021-09-09 17:55 KST Modified on : 2021-09-09 17:55 KST
Plans are being discussed to allow for a gradual return to normalcy by the end of November, but the question of how many COVID-19 deaths are acceptable remains up in the air
People wait in line to get tested for COVID-19 at a temporary screening station in Seoul on Wednesday. (Yonhap News)
People wait in line to get tested for COVID-19 at a temporary screening station in Seoul on Wednesday. (Yonhap News)

As the South Korean government gears up to gradually return to normalcy its handling of COVID-19 in November, when 70 percent of the populace will have been completely vaccinated, disease control officials have started working on defining the concept of a “gradual return to normalcy” and toward refocusing the COVID-19 management scheme on severe symptoms and the fatality rate.

“Since 70 percent of the Korean public will have been fully vaccinated by the end of October, we expect to be able to consider plans for a gradual return to normalcy in November, following the two-week period [when antibodies form]. We think it’s extremely important to keep COVID-19 under control in September given the substantial importance of disease control [in November],” said Son Young-rae, director of strategy and planning at Korea’s Central Disaster Management Headquarters, during a press briefing at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters on Wednesday.

That timeframe was a little later than that mentioned Tuesday by Jeong Eun-kyeong, commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. When asked if it would be possible to start treating COVID-19 as part of everyday life at the end of October, Jeong Eun-kyeong said, “we’re assuming that’s an option we can consider.”

The government said the first thing needed for a gradual return to normalcy is a definition of the concept.

“Given the ambiguity of the concept of ‘learning to live with COVID-19,’ this issue needs to be discussed and reviewed in depth. Some experts are arguing that as more people are vaccinated and the case fatality rate decreases, the disease control system should be reoriented from the number of confirmed cases to the number of fatalities and that society should start treating this like a seasonal flu. What’s missing here is the question of what we should regard as an acceptable number of deaths,” Son said.

The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters said that 2,000-4,000 people die from the seasonal flu, while around 2,300 people have died from COVID-19 over the past 18 months.

Under the concept of a “gradual return to normalcy” as it has been used so far, the government would effectively tolerate two to three times the current number of deaths from COVID-19.

“But a survey of national attitudes found that fewer than 1,000 deaths a year was an important prerequisite for a gradual return to normal, which means that this issue needs further review,” Son said. The UK, which adopted a strategy of “living with COVID-19,” is seeing roughly 30,000 annual deaths from COVID-19.

The government said that disease control staff are working to define the concept of a gradual return to normalcy and to develop a corresponding strategy for disease control.

“We don’t have a task force or some other official organization inside the Central Disease Control Headquarters [assigned to this], but all the teams related to epidemiology and diagnosis are working together under the general coordination team to carry out a detailed review of related issues,” said Jeong Tong-ryeong, head of the general coordination team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, on Wednesday.

“In addition to defining the concept, we’re also engaged in separate discussions of the indicators needed for an overall transition and a number of other specific matters,” Jeong Tong-ryeong said.

In related news, Korea reported 2,050 new cases of COVID-19 on Wednesday, bringing the daily case count above 2,000 for the first time since Sept. 1. The greater Seoul area accounted for 1,476 of 2,014 domestic cases of COVID-19, representing 73.28 percent of the total. The capital area’s share of total cases had remained at the 50-60 percent level from mid-July to August but rose to 70.8% on Aug. 31 and has hovered around 70 percent ever since.

The seven-day average of cases for Aug. 29-Sept. 4 fell by 12.6 percent outside the greater Seoul area but rose 3.9 percent from the previous week in the capital area.

By Seo Hye-mi, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

button that move to original korean article (클릭시 원문으로 이동하는 버튼)

Related stories