hankyoreh

Silhouettes of two people can be seen in front of a screen at the Songpa District Office in Seoul showing the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed by the end of Tuesday, when Korea first recorded a daily caseload in the 7,000s, on Wednesday. (Kang Chang-kwang/The Hankyoreh)

The number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Korea exceeded 7,000 for the first time on Wednesday. Experts are projecting that the figure may reach 10,000 before the end of the year and expressed concerns about a spike in the number of COVID-19 patients in severe or critical condition, calling for extraordinary countermeasures including tightened social distancing.

Despite these warnings, the South Korean government put forth measures to improve at-home treatment for patients with mild symptoms, cautiously optimistic of the projected effects of its “special disease control measures” including the expansion of vaccine passes implemented on Monday.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced Wednesday that a total of 7,175 new COVID-19 cases, of which 7,142 were domestic and 33 were imported, were confirmed as of the end of the previous day — an increase of 2,221 cases from the previous day’s 4,954 and an increase of 2,052 cases from the previous Wednesday’s 5,123.

In addition, a total of 840 patients were listed as being in severe or critical condition, an all-time high. New COVID-19 deaths were tallied at 63, with the number of cumulative deaths now totaling 4,020.

As to why the number of newly confirmed cases jumped by more than 2,000 in the span of a single day, the South Korean government cited the decline of the weekend effect and the continued contagion of COVID-19.

Son Young-rae, a senior official at the Central Disaster Management Headquarters, said during a regular briefing, “[We’re observing] a repeated pattern in which the number of daily tests [that decreases during the weekend] shoots back up every Wednesday, resulting in an increase in newly confirmed cases. On top of that, COVID-19 has continued to spread, which has led to a big rise in confirmed cases.”

He added, “The government believes that the proportion of older COVID-19 patients, which continues to remain significant, is a greater concern than the daily total of newly confirmed cases and is something we are paying sustained attention to.”

Of the newly confirmed cases announced Wednesday, 20.99% (1,506 cases) were in their 60s while 13.14% (943 cases) were in their 70s; both figures had seen slight increases from figures announced the day before, when only 18.99% (941 cases) and 12.32% (610 cases) of the 4,954 newly confirmed cases were in their 60s and 70s, respectively.

While acknowledging that an increase in daily caseloads was expected with a gradual return to everyday life, experts agreed that additional disease control and health care measures are urgently needed with the number of patients in severe or critical condition surging to levels the current healthcare system cannot handle.

Jung Jaehun, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University’s College of Medicine, said during a phone call with the Hankyoreh, “It’s true that the increase in the number of daily confirmed cases is due to the gradual return to everyday life. But numbers are increasing much faster than anticipated. I believe it will take [pausing the return to everyday life right now] for daily caseloads level out at 10,000.”

He also added, “We need emergency disease control policies and should consider social distancing in addition to the [special disease control] measures announced over the past two weeks.” At a COVID-19 forum held late last month, Jung projected that daily caseloads would reach 7,000 around January and 10,000 around late January of next year; in reality, the timeline appears to have moved up.

With the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases growing throughout South Korea, the nation’s healthcare system is also reaching the limits of its capacity. Dedicated hospital beds for COVID-19 patients in critical condition are at 78.7% capacity nationwide, and those in the greater Seoul area are at 84.5% capacity, remaining at critical levels day after day, though their number only increased by one from 1,254 beds from the day before.

The number of patients undergoing at-home treatment is also growing rapidly. As of the end of the day Tuesday, 17,362 COVID-19 patients were receiving at-home treatment, a jump of 538 from Monday. Moreover, 860 patients were on the waiting list for hospital beds, and of those, nearly half had been waiting for more than four days.

Though the South Korean government declared early last month that it would make sure the nation’s health care system would be prepared to handle a daily caseload of 10,000 with a return to everyday life, it seemed to be acknowledging its failure to take appropriate steps to respond to patients in severe or critical condition.

Son said, “Assuming that 1.6% of all patients would develop critical symptoms, we had increased the number of dedicated hospital beds for patients in critical condition and hospital beds reserved for patients with infectious diseases to three times the number of hospital beds that were available last December.”

He continued, “However, 2%-2.5% of COVID-19 patients are developing critical symptoms, so intensive care units are at a higher capacity,” adding, “We can probably handle [daily caseloads of] around 10,000, but to respond to higher levels of daily caseloads, significant medical adjustments will be necessary, so we are going to continue securing more hospital beds as planned.”

While recognizing the difficulty of explaining the spread of COVID-19 with just Wednesday’s daily caseload, disease control experts are predicting that there’s a high chance that daily caseloads could reach 10,000 within the year.

Kim Yoon, a professor of health care management at Seoul National University’s medical school, projected, “The increased caseload of over 7,000 is a temporary one, and the number of newly confirmed cases may drop slightly Thursday or Friday, but COVID-19 is continuing to spread, so chances are high that we may reach a daily caseload of 10,000 within the year.”

The South Korean government will continue to monitor the effects of the special disease control measures introduced on Monday and focus on implementing additional disease control measures. During a back briefing, the CDCH said, “We predict the spread of diseases based on the population’s defense capacity (immunity level), movement level, and infection level. Right now, infection levels are at an all-time high, movement levels are not declining, and immunity levels from vaccination are weakening.”

It added, “Based on the current situation, it seems that the number of confirmed cases will only increase. We will monitor the situation closely and consider whether to take special action.”

Meanwhile, two more cases of the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus were confirmed on Wednesday, bringing the cumulative total in South Korea to 38.

By Lee Jae-ho and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters

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