Concern deepens over N. Korea 's missile brinkmanship

Posted on : 2006-06-16 17:19 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST

South Korean officials admitted here Friday that there are concrete signs North Korea is preparing to soon conduct a test of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile.

North Korea has been accelerating its preparations for a test-firing of its Taepodong-2 missile believed to be capable of hitting some parts of the U.S., according to foreign media.

Japan's Kyodo News reported Friday that North Korea has already installed part of the multi-stage missile on a launch pad in Musu-ri in North Hamgyeong Province, citing sources close to Washington' s military intelligence. It stopped short of providing information on whether North Korea has injected fuel into the missile or not.

The British news wire service Reuters said that Pyongyang may fire the missile as early as this weekend.

The news has kept South Korean officials busy trying to come up with a set of responses should a missile launch take place.

"Yes, we are coming up with possible countermeasures. How can we sit back under the pressing circumstances like this," an official from South Korea 's Foreign Ministry said on condition of anonymity.

"But it is more important to persuade North Korea not to fire a missile, as it would deal a serious blow to the regional situation as well as efforts to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis," he added.

The South Korean government reportedly expressed its "grave concern" on the issue directly to a group of North Korean officials visiting the southern city of Gwangju to attend an annual event to mark the historic summit between the two Koreas' leaders in 2000.

The celebratory mood there has been overshadowed by the escalating tension over Pyongyang's missile activities.

A top U.S. military official in Seoul said at a breakfast forum on Friday that North Korea's missile activities are a political matter.

It would have a negative effect on not only Northeast Asian security but also global peace, added Lt. Gen. David P. Valcourt, commander of the 8th U.S. Army stationed in South Korea.

Earlier, South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon also urged the North to stop its missile launch preparations and immediately return to the six-way talks on its nuclear program.

U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Vershbow also openly said his country would take "appropriate measures" if Pyongyang presses forward with such a provocative move.

South Korean government ministries are taking slightly different stances as to whether North Korea will break its self-imposed moratorium on missile test anytime soon.

The Foreign Ministry appears to believe that North Korea will conduct the test in a bid to force direct talks with the U.S. over the nuclear weapons issue and Washington' s sanctions against Pyongyang.

North Korea has officially invited the chief U.S. nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill to visit Pyongyang for discussions, but the U.S. has turned it down.

The Bush administration rules out any talks with North Korea outside of the Beijing-based six-party talks that also involve South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.

On the other hand, the Defense Ministry presents a more realistic reason for North Korea to be captious about a missile launch: missile trade.

"North Korean leaders would feel burdened by the possibility that a launched missile could be intercepted by a United States Aegis Ship deployed in the East Sea," said missile expert Col.

Shin Sung-taek.

He pointed out that if a missile interception took place, it would seriously damage the reputation of North Korea 's missile program. Pyongyang is estimated to earn about US$1.5 billion a year from transfers of its missile technology.

The Unification Ministry, which manages Seoul's policy regarding Pyongyang, seems to be far more concerned about the apparent negative impact a missile launch could have on its inter-Korean cooperation project.

North Korea 's firing of a missile would mean a dead end for President Roh Moo-hyun's already-unpopular approach towards the North, analysts say.

The Unification Ministry would likely come under more pressure from conservatives to suspend such joint ventures with North Korea as the Kaesong Industrial Complex and tourism business to Mount Geumgang.

Analysts in Seoul said that a North Korean launch of a missile would lead the U.S. to ratchet up its pressure against the reclusive state.

"The preparations for a missile test can satisfy North Koreans eager to draw the attention of U.S. officials who are more interested in the Iranian nuclear issue," Jun Jae-sung, a professor of international studies at Seoul National University, said.

But if it actually fires a missile, it would be no mere matter of seeking to attract attention, he added, as the U.S., which has seen bigger-than-expected results from its sanctions on the Banco Delta Asia bank, would seek more sanctions.

Last September, the U.S. Treasury blacklisted the Macau bank, accusing it of circulating counterfeit U.S. currency allegedly printed in North Korea. The measure led to a freeze of US$24 million of North Korea 's deposits, most of which are allegedly slush funds of its ruling elite.

North Korea wants the U.S. to lift the sanctions as a precondition for it to return to the nuclear talks, a demand that has been unanswered by officials in Washington.
Seoul, June 16 (Yonhap)

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