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Kim Chong-in, chair of the United Future Party’s emergency policy committee, speaks during a meeting at the National Assembly on Aug. 13. (Yonhap News)

Opinion survey findings show the United Future Party (UFP) leading the ruling Democratic Party in support ratings. The reversal in the two parties’ support ratings is the first in 199 weeks since October 2016, which marked the beginning of the process of Park Geun-hye’s eventual impeachment. The decisive difference has been the number of moderates shifting their support to the UFP after previously supporting the Democratic Party or remaining neutral.

On Aug. 10-12, Real Meter conducted a survey of political party support among 1,507 adult South Koreans nationwide (confidence level 95% with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points). The results showed support for the Democratic Party down 1.7 percentage points from the previous week at 33.4%, and the UFP up 1.9 percentage points at 36.5%.

A major factor in the UFP surpassing the Democratic Party was a rise in support among self-identified moderates. Support levels among moderates were 30.8% for the Democratic Party and 39.6% for the UFP. The Democratic Party’s numbers were down 0.7 percentage points from the previous week, while the UFP’s rose by 2.2 percentage points. While the 3.1-percentage point difference in the two parties’ overall support levels fell within the margin of error, the difference in support among moderates was fully 8.8 percentage points.

“The fact that the ruling party’s support levels have dropped below 35.5% is the sign of a severe crisis. The key factor here is moderates turning away,” said Park Seong-min, CEO of the political consulting group Min.

The Democratic Party downplayed the significance of what it described as a “temporary situation.” A prominent lawmaker and member of the party leadership said, “A sense of victimization by the sharp rise in real estate prices has played a major part.”

“The conservatives’ strategy of stirring the pot with talk of a ‘tax bomb’ and the ‘vanishing opportunity for home ownership’ has paid off. The problem will go away once it’s been shown that the claims aren’t true,” the lawmaker added. According to this analysis, the numbers are not a sign of a fundamental crisis caused by the administration’s mistakes or corruption, but a temporary defection of voters due to a misunderstanding of the situation.

Indeed, many within the Democratic Party view the recent dip in support as an isolated trend stemming from a combination of factors including the rise in real estate prices and flood damage amid fatigue from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Their claim is that support levels will rise again once the real estate policies show fruit and the market stabilizes.

The UFP, for its part, has been striving to play things cool and firm up its position. Meeting with reporters after a meeting of the party’s emergency committee the same day, committee director Kim Chong-in said, “We’re looking at the opinion polls as a singular trend, and we don’t really need to comment in particular [on the latest findings]. The party will quietly do what it can for the future, and the people will judge.”

In a talk with reporters in Namwon, North Jeolla Province, the same day, UFP Floor Leader Joo Ho-young downplayed the results, saying, “With opinion polls, every organization is different [with its findings]. We have our own [independent] polls showing us to be far behind.”

At the same time, he signaled plans for the party to redouble its commitment.

“We also got to see how the people recognize how hard we’ve been working. We plan to work in the regular National Assembly session to develop the legislation and policies that people want in a more sophisticated way than the ruling party,” he added.

Sources also reported that in a closed-door emergency committee meeting held shortly after the polling results were announced, members of the party leadership urged attendees to “not let on how pleased we are.”

“No toasting,” they were quoted as saying.

By Noh Ji-won and Jang Na-rye, staff reporters

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