hankyoreh

2020 Electoral College Ratings by UVA Center for Politics

July 26 kicked off the final hundred days until the US presidential election on Nov. 3, which will decide whether Donald Trump is reelected or replaced by Democratic candidate Joe Biden. One person who puts the odds on Trump failing in his reelection bid is John Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a well-known newsletter that covers elections in the US. “If the election were today, Trump would very likely lose,” Coleman said.

The key variables, Coleman said, are the three presidential debates that will be held between September and October and the question of whether Trump can regroup his key constituency of conservative evangelical Christians.

“Just because you’re up in the polls doesn’t mean you’re always going to win. Just think of where we were in the past 100 days — Biden really didn’t have the type of lead he has now,” he said. The interview took place over email and the phone on July 20.

Hankyoreh (Hani): The US presidential election is only about 100 days away. What’s your overall estimation of the race now?

Coleman: For about the past seven to eight weeks, Biden has been racking up healthy leads in the polls. He’s led by roughly 8-9% in most national polls, and has posted smaller, but consistent leads in swing states — such as Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania [Editor: +7.0, +6.4, and +6.7 points, respectively, according to RealClearPolitics]. His approval rating has almost always been in the low-40s — not strong. But if he’s down 8-9% nationally, winning those swing states — and the Electoral College — is much harder.

Hani: So is Biden going to win on Nov. 3?

John Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Coleman: If the election were today, Trump would very likely lose. The Crystal Ball is relatively friendly to Trump. We have Biden at 268 electoral votes, under the 270 he’d need. Some models today have Biden winning the election with upwards of 350 electoral votes. We have a feeling that the gap will narrow by the time the election rolls around. For instance, Trump right now is showing some signs of weakness with religious evangelical voters — we have some polling suggesting his approval with them is around 60%, instead of the usual 80%. When push comes to shove, we have a hard time seeing these people vote Biden. So perhaps Trump has some room to rebound.

Hani: Until earlier this year, the dominant outlook seemed to be “Trump will win again” but now Trump is trailing Biden in the polls. What are the reasons for that?

Coleman: Going into this year, Trump had a strong economy, which traditionally bodes well for presidents seeking reelection. Then along came the virus. And the Black Lives Matter protests. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, voters trust Biden much more than Trump on handling the virus and race relations. Even Trump’s handling of the economy is underwater [at 44/53].

Hani: Despite polling figures, the Trump campaign claims that the “silent majority is stronger than ever.”

Coleman: To me, that sounds like “loser speak.” A few days ago, when asked about Trump’s poor national polls, Vice President Mike Pence said something to the effect of “the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day.” That’s something that losing candidates say. Trump is also pushing for more debates with Biden, beyond the standard three that were already scheduled. Usually, if you’re requesting more debates, it’s the sign of a campaign that’s behind.

Hani: In 2016, most of the press and pollsters expected Hillary Clinton to win but the result was a Trump victory. Are things different this year?

Coleman: 2016 was an open seat election — open contests tend to be more volatile. In 2016, Trump was seen as more of a “blank slate,” and he was running against Hillary Clinton, who had decades of baggage. Perhaps in 2016, voters were more willing to “roll the dice” on Trump. But now, we’re in the midst of a national emergency (the virus). Trump hasn’t risen to the occasion, and now that he’s an incumbent with a record, voters are judging him more harshly. And in terms of favorability ratings, usually Joe Biden will be about even. That means about the same amount of people view him favorably as unfavorably [Editor: around 40%]. In 2016, Hillary Clinton’s approval [favorability] was deeply underwater [Editor: 30/50].

Hani: Can we trust the polls this time, when they failed to predict results in 2016?

Coleman: At the national level, polling averages had Clinton winning the popular vote in 2016 by 3% — that was actually fairly accurate, as she won the popular vote 48%-46%. One of the Crystal Ball’s guest authors, Alan Abramowitz, looked at national polling in 2016 versus 2020 recently. What he found was, compared to Clinton, Biden has posted larger and more stable leads. Trump won in 2016 because of his narrow wins in a few swing states [Editor: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, for example]. If Biden’s national lead in polling is truly 8-9%, those swing states are almost surely out of reach for him.

Hani: In the next 100 days, what variables could impact the outcome of the election?

Coleman: The coronavirus looms large — it's just something that impacts people most concretely. Perhaps if there’s a coronavirus vaccine [before the election], that would boost Trump’s chances. Once the virus is alleviated, other issues (like the economy) will also likely improve. It’s been a genius strategy by the Democrats to keep Biden in his basement at home. Throughout his career, he’s been known for misspeaking. When Biden is more visible — maybe during one of the debates — he’ll misspeak or have some unforced error that may convince voters to give Trump another look. I feel like since Biden is going to eventually be out in public, it’s going to turn into more of a choice between two flawed candidates.

By Hwang Joon-bum, Washington correspondent

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