hankyoreh

Social distancing markers in front of Yoido Full Gospel Church in Seoul’s Yeongdeungpo District on Aug. 10. (Yonhap News)

Experts are saying the South Korean government will need to raise its disease prevention efforts from their current level to prevent a large-scale resurgence of COVID-19. While the government raised the social distancing level for the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) to Level 2 as of Aug. 16, it was also made less stringent in consideration of the potential side effects, including a chilling effect on the economy. But with what amounts to a “Level 1.5” system of social distancing that’s unlikely to send a powerful signal about the importance of adhering to disease prevention rules, the government is poised to face a deepening dilemma as it seeks to pursue the two simultaneous objectives of disease prevention and economic growth.

The transmissibility associated with the latest outbreak in the SCA was found to be slightly weaker than during the outbreak connected to the Shincheonji religious sect in February, but stronger than the infection clusters associated with clubs in Seoul’s Itaewon neighborhood last May. According to a study by a National Cancer Center research team that modeled the virus’ spread, the reproduction number (R number) for the period from Aug. 1 to 17 was estimated at 2.83 -- meaning that each patient infected an average of 2.83 others.

That level of transmissibility is close to the one observed during the initial major outbreak that occurred in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province. Between Feb. 18, which saw the first Shincheonji-associated diagnosis, and Feb. 28 -- the day before the number of newly diagnosed patients reached its one-day peak of 909 -- the R number stood at 3.53. The current R number of 2.83 also exceeds the 2.69 recorded between Apr. 30 and May 13, when the Itaewon infection cluster emerged. The researchers predicted that even if the R number eventually declines to its July average of 0.72, the number of daily new diagnoses will stand at 119 two weeks from now and 70 a month from now.

“There’s also the possibility that the R number will increase to its February level and lead to a major outbreak,” suggested Ki Mo-ran, a professor of preventive medicine at the National Cancer Center.

Concluding that the current situation represents the “initial stages of a large-scale outbreak,” the South Korean government upgraded to Level 2 social distancing as of Aug. 16. Under this system, gatherings of 50 or more people indoors and 100 or more people outdoors are prohibited. But for an initial two-week period, the government is implementing a looser form of distancing that “recommends” people to refrain from gatherings. It also decided not to bar operation of high-risk facilities such as large after-school academies and karaoke rooms in consideration of the potential economic impact.

“If the number of patients in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province does not stabilize by this week, we will intensify the distancing and disease control measures further,” the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCHQ) announced on Aug. 17.

But infectious disease experts insisted that no time should be wasted in intensifying distancing measures.

“The government has been a step behind in its decisions,” said Lee Jae-gap, a professor of infectious diseases at Hallym University Gangnam Sacred Heart Hospital.

“They need to either upgrade to Level 3 social distancing for Greater Seoul right now, or close high-risk facilities if they plan to keep it at Level 2,” Lee advised.

Previously, the government responded to a series of infection clusters involving underground churches in the SCA area by imposing intensified disease prevention measures as of July 10, which barred small gatherings apart from regular church services. But those measures were lifted just two weeks later -- setting the stage for the current church-based outbreak.

In response to the calls, CDSCHQ General Coordinator and Vice Health Minister Kim Kang-lip said, “While we can reduce additional risks by quickly adopting more stringent measures, it may be difficult to win the public’s support for measures that only take disease prevention into account at a time when [the COVID-19 pandemic] has been going on for over seven months.”

“If the situation deteriorates further, our first step may be to implement the measures that we deferred [such as closing high-risk facilities],” Kim added.

By Hwang Ye-rang, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]